State of the Race: Toss-ups

I know we're not supposed to be talking about polling during the conventions. But then I'm not here today to talk about the non-existent Romney bounce.

Instead, as usual, I want to talk about what's going on with the electoral map these days. Almost every news outfit has a map of their prognostications. I look at them all most every day. And I've come to the conclusion that this is where things stand today. If you click through on that link you'll find my projection.

Comparing this to other maps, you might notice that at this point I have fewer states in the toss-up category. I think that additional states are usually included as a result of polling noise - they come and go.

So as of today, President Obama has a pretty firm grasp on 257 electoral votes with 6 states still potentially up for grabs. That means he only needs 13 of the 90 remaining electoral votes in order to win. Romney, on the other hand, only has 191 electoral votes nailed down.

Beyond that it is interesting to note that in every compilation of state polls, the only one of the 6 remaining states where Romney has a lead is North Carolina (surprise, surprise...the very state where the Democrats are gathering right now for their convention).

Most pundits have been assuming that Romney will win NC this time. We'll see. But the interesting thing to note is that if that's the case, then they should all also be assuming that President Obama will win Ohio and Virginia because his lead in those states is bigger than Romney's lead in North Carolina.

Given where my map stands today, if Obama wins EITHER Ohio or Virginia - he has the 270 needed to win. Romney could win the other one and add it to NC, Florida, Iowa, and Colorado - and still loose.

My prediction today...President Obama will win all 6 toss-ups states garnering a total of 347 electoral votes.

OK, I'm out on a limb with that one, but pretty comfortable there :-)  And for all you naysayers, just note that I said its my prediction TODAY.