tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7163441833245663827.post8432927905683563208..comments2024-03-28T10:49:14.510-05:00Comments on Horizons: State of the Race: When Plouffe and Silver agree...take it to the bankNancy LeTourneauhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12614317154146836694noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7163441833245663827.post-77825267529526669992012-10-18T12:39:32.819-05:002012-10-18T12:39:32.819-05:00I made a prediction earlier this year that there w...I made a prediction earlier this year that there would be a 1-2 week period in the Fall in which Democrats would start pulling out the razor blades, convinced that Obama was going to lose, because one or two polls came out showing Romney in the lead.<br /><br />I also predicted that Obama would go on to win comfortably.<br /><br />(past results is not a predictor of future performance).Chris Andersenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18139817527808942227noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7163441833245663827.post-12214909626963237672012-10-18T10:07:24.615-05:002012-10-18T10:07:24.615-05:00I agree with both of these men in their assessment...I agree with both of these men in their assessment, but would want to ask Nate Silver if the swings in polling can be so easily dismissed as not impacting the election results or as overstating their impact once early voting has begun. As OFA's effort to bank early votes is currently underway it seems to me that there is potential for events such as the second debate win and the "binders full of women" craze as well as Mitt getting fact checked in real time sort of grease the skids for the good guys. Sure, they may be destined to level back out to a more accurate reflection of where the population really stands, but for that moment, isn't the exaggerated effect still reflective of the environment in which we're functioning as we knock on doors? It may be a temporary and exaggerative phenomenon, but it is there none the less for a moment and possibly capitalized upon with swift action. <br /><br />Frequently NFL playoffs and NCCA basketball tourneys go to the team with the momentum, not the team with the best full season.lockewasrightnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7163441833245663827.post-44176539304060302162012-10-18T09:49:10.048-05:002012-10-18T09:49:10.048-05:00Again, SP, thanks for your good sense.
Plouffe is...Again, SP, thanks for your good sense.<br /><br />Plouffe is very good at what he does. I sincerely hope he continues working national elections for Democrats, because he's cut from a different cloth than the crew who worked with Bill Clinton.<br /><br />Yes, all along the president has had a number of paths to victory and a slight advantage in all of them, and Romney has had more or less one, which is to win all the swing states they are now reasonably contesting. It's not likely. And yes, it's been that way since June or July.<br /><br />Most of the hyperventilation on our side was nonsense and counterproductive. Though, I will say that when it looked like Romney was totally collapsing--public screwup after public screwup--I felt some elation that we might take the House decisively. It's still possible, but we are back in reality now.Billhttp://freeandeasywandering.com/noreply@blogger.com