What Is Putin's Endgame in Ukraine?

On Wednesday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken asked the crucial question when it comes to the war Russia is waging in Ukraine, "what is Putin's endgame?" As he went on to explain, the Russian president made a serious miscalculation in the beginning. He underestimated both the resilience of the Ukrainian people and the unity of the response around the globe. In other words, Putin's initial endgame has seriously failed. What does he hope to accomplish now? In order for us to provide an off-ramp for the Kremlin, we need to know what Putin is willing to accept as a settlement.

There are those who are suggesting that we're seeing some subtle shifts that could create an opening for a cease fire. 

[I]n recent days, the language has shifted, with the Kremlin signaling that Mr. Putin is no longer bent on regime change in Kyiv. It is a subtle shift, and it may be a head-fake; but it is prompting officials who have scrambled to mediate to believe that Mr. Putin may be seeking a negotiated way out of a war that has become a much bloodier slog than he expected.

Russia has offered terms under which they will stop the war "in a moment." Here's what Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin's spokesperson, told Reuters:

"We really are finishing the demilitarisation of Ukraine. We will finish it. But the main thing is that Ukraine ceases its military action. They should stop their military action and then no one will shoot," he said.

On the issue of neutrality, Peskov said: "They should make amendments to the constitution according to which Ukraine would reject any aims to enter any bloc."

He added: "We have also spoken about how they should recognise that Crimea is Russian territory and that they need to recognise that Donetsk and Lugansk are independent states. And that’s it. It will stop in a moment."

A lot of people have focused on the "issue of neutrality" and the demands related to Crimea, Donetsk and Lugansk. But the suggestion that Russia will finish the "demilitarization of Ukraine" is rather ominous. Also, the suggestion that it is Ukraine that must stop their military action is clearly doublespeak. It is Russia that instigated this invasion of a sovereign country. 

When Ukrainian President Zelensky was asked about these demands during an interview with David Muir, here is how he responded:

“Regarding NATO, I have cooled down regarding this question a long time ago, after we understood that NATO is not prepared to accept Ukraine,” Mr. Zelensky said in an interview with ABC News on Tuesday.

Ukraine was also willing to discuss how the breakaway territories “will live on,” Mr. Zelensky added. “What is important to me is how the people in those territories are going to live who want to be part of Ukraine. The question is more difficult than simply acknowledging them.”

There are two things to keep in mind when it comes to Zelensky's statement about NATO. Many people have responded to his comment by saying that he's changed his mind about Ukraine joining the alliance. But read what he actually said, "I have cooled down regarding this question a long time ago." In other words, this isn't anything new. 

Secondly, as Peskov made clear, the Russian demand is that Ukraine alter their constitution to reject any aims to enter any bloc. That would include joining the European Union, which is a move that Ukraine has already initiated. It is also interesting to note that Zelensky's Servant of the People Party has proposed a new security agreement as an alternative to the country joining NATO. But Putin wants Ukraine to be alone and isolated, making them much more vulnerable. 

One statement Zelensky made during that interview represents the heart of the issue and goes against everything Putin stands for. He said, "I'm ready for a dialogue. We are not ready for that capitulation because it's not about me, this is about the people who elected me." In other words, while Zelensky represents the people of Ukraine, they are the ones who will ultimately decide. That is the foundation of democracy that Putin both fears and abhors.

In the end, I don't see much of an opening in Russia's latest demands. When it comes to deeds rather than words, Putin is showing his hand by training his fire on civilian rather than military targets (like the bombing of a maternity hospital). 

U.S. intelligence agencies say Mr. Putin has been frustrated by the slow pace of the military advance and is likely to double down on using brute force, which could mean far more destruction and much higher civilian casualties. Russian forces have stepped up rocket, artillery and air attacks on cities, hitting a growing number of civilian targets; Ukrainian officials say the Kremlin, so far unable to win military victory, is instead trying to destroy Ukrainian morale.

In other words, Putin's current endgame is to destroy Ukrainian morale in order to force them to capitulate. As long as that remains the case, there is no acceptable off-ramp.