Thursday, July 21, 2011

How I'm preparing to weather the poutrage storm

Prepare yourselves for a hair-on-fire explosion in the next day or so because I suspect that the New York Times got the story right and we're about to see another "grand bargain" appear.

The Obama administration has informed Democratic Congressional leaders that President Obama and Speaker John A. Boehner were starting to close in on a major budget deal that would enact substantial spending cuts and seek future revenues through a tax overhaul, Congressional officials said Thursday.

You KNOW the poutragers are going to go completely ballistic over this one, don't you? Even I get a little worried. But I've also watched Obama for these last 3 to 4 years and so I tell myself to calm down and try to imagine what he's doing. Its almost always the case that he's playing a better hand than folks assume.

Perhaps we got a hint on that one from Grover Nordquist yesterday.

With a handful of exceptions, every Republican member of Congress has signed a pledge against increasing taxes. Would allowing the Bush tax cuts to expire as scheduled in 2012 violate this vow? We posed this question to Grover Norquist, its author and enforcer, and his answer was both surprising and encouraging: No.

In other words, according to Mr. Norquist’s interpretation of the Americans for Tax Reform pledge, lawmakers have the technical leeway to bring in as much as $4 trillion in new tax revenue — the cost of extending President George W. Bush’s tax cuts for another decade — without being accused of breaking their promise. “Not continuing a tax cut is not technically a tax increase,” Mr. Norquist told us. So it doesn’t violate the pledge? “We wouldn’t hold it that way,” he said.

What if - instead of $1 trillion in additional taxes, President Obama is playing for the whole enchilada of $4 trillion in Bush tax cuts repealed. All that would have to happen to bring that about would be for no legislation to pass extending them beyond the 2012 deadline - or for Obama to veto such legislation.

Or perhaps Obama is working on a deal to extend only the tax cuts to the middle class - which would require legislation and would bring in an additional $700 billion in revenue over 10 years.

Remember what the President said at the press conference when he announced the extension of those tax cuts for 2 years:

Now, I know there are some who would have preferred a protracted political fight, even if it had meant higher taxes for all Americans, even if it had meant an end to unemployment insurance for those who are desperately looking for work.

And I understand the desire for a fight. I’m sympathetic to that. I’m as opposed to the high-end tax cuts today as I’ve been for years. In the long run, we simply can’t afford them. And when they expire in two years, I will fight to end them, just as I suspect the Republican Party may fight to end the middle-class tax cuts that I’ve championed and that they’ve opposed.

We know that Wall Street is pushing for a deal on this debt limit. And yesterday, even Eric Cantor's donors were saying "raise our taxes."

Adding an unusual twist to the political maneuvering, GOP aides say that wealthy donors have approached Cantor to push tax increases...

A few wealthy donors have called Cantor to tell him they wouldn’t mind if their taxes are raised. During two closed meetings this week — one with vote-counting lawmakers, and another with the entire conference — Cantor told colleagues that some well-heeled givers have told them they’re willing to pay more taxes.

The problem for Boehner and Cantor is how to do that without setting off a riot in their Tea Party base. Perhaps that's what the bargaining is about now.

I'll admit, I'm going out on a limb here and could be completely wrong. But I've watched this President long enough now that I'm confident something like this is in the works. Knowing that helps me weather the hair-on-fire explosions.

3 comments:

  1. I'd have to look for a link, but I remember seeing President Obama state flat out that the Bush tax cut for the wealthy would not be renewed. They will expire after the 2012 elections so either he will be in charge for 4 more years and won't have to negotiate or he won't be in charge for 4 more years and won't have to negotiate. He was very firm about it.

    Also there was an update on Norquist where he says he was misunderstood. Allowing the tax cuts to expire is raising taxes.

    http://twitter.com/#!/jaketapper/statuses/94058473591025664

    I have watched President Obama closely. Listened to his speeches and press conferences and read about his policies and actions on the WH blog. I trust him. I don't know his game plan but I see that rich Republicans are going to Cantor and telling him to raise their taxes. There must be immense pressure on those idiots.

    The thing to do is get Democrats elected and get some sane legislation passed. The Republican idiocy is so out in the open it can't be ignored anymore.

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  2. Suzanne

    Thanks for that twitter update. I still think there's something brewing about those Bush tax cuts. Grover might have stepped in it and gone too far initially. But I think it signals that there is talk about them going on. And that's a good thing!

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  3. Oh, I agree Smartypants. I think revenue increase is definitely in play. President Obama has been making the case for increasing revenue through some method of tax reform or letting the Bush tax cuts expire and the people are supporting him for it. He is using his bully pulpit to get a message across that people haven't wanted to hear -- repeating it almost daily in different ways. I live in a small town in Indiana and folks here are very aware of the issues -- about how much money the top 1% makes and how little taxes they pay. I think they are remembering what it was like before President Obama was inaugurated and who was responsible. And because it's going on every day it's really sinking in.

    In spite of the posturing in the press I have the feeling there are forces moving behind the scenes in many way -- business leaders, Wall Street, others talking to the GOP -- and the President is leading it and working to get all of the elements into place.

    There hasn't been any other president I've trusted like President Obama.

    ReplyDelete

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