I don't have an answer to that question right now. I think its a HUGE toss-up and that the gaffes we've seen in just one week since the Iowa Straw Poll kicked things into high gear are only a taste of things to come.
We all know that President Obama is going to have a much easier journey to re-election if one of the truly crazies (much of the distinction seems only in degrees right now) gets the nod. I suspect that Bachmann will be a contender, but I don't think she'll actually win the nomination. And yet we all know that President Obama would be re-elected in a landslide against her. So its hard to not cheer her on.
I remember when Huntsman got in the race. There was a part of me that was glad to hear that. Its ultimately because, as much as I want to see Obama re-elected, I also realize that for the health of the country as a whole, it would be good for the Republican Party to step back from the abyss of lunacy they've been careening towards lately.
While sane thoughtful Republicans would present more competition, they would also raise the level of discourse politically in this country. And I have enough confidence in Democratic principles to know that we win the day when that happens.
Based on what he's said in the past, I think that's what President Obama would hope for too.
Our goal should be to stick to our guns on those core values that make this country great, show a spirit of flexibility and sustained attention that can achieve those goals, and try to create the sort of serious, adult, consensus around our problems that can admit Democrats, Republicans and Independents of good will. This is more than just a matter of "framing," although clarity of language, thought, and heart are required. It's a matter of actually having faith in the American people's ability to hear a real and authentic debate about the issues that matter.
Should we wish for a sane Republican Party?
ReplyDeleteUnequivocally, yes. The country needs two parties a sane person can vote for. No political party, including the Democrats, can be trusted indefinitely without a viable opposition.
As for our immediate situation, we don't know that Obama would beat Bachmann or Perry. His odds against them would certainly be better than against Romney or Huntsman, but any major-party candidate always has some non-trivial chance of winning the Presidency. An economic collapse, scandal, or major terrorist attack could undercut Obama at the last minute and let the Republican, whoever it is, squeak in. These things are not likely. But they're not unlikely enough to allow complacency.
Given enough time, the probability of a Republican President approaches certainty. People just don't like letting one party hold the office too many terms in a row.
It's inevitable that Republicans will control the government again someday. What we need is to ensure that that won't be a disaster when it happens.
You're right to correct me about Bachmann. I shouldn't be so cavalier about that.
ReplyDeleteAnd I agree wholeheartedly with the rest of your comment as well.
I often find myself gravitating to anyone - politician or pundit - who at least attempts to make a rational argument from a conservative position. I think we need that both to challenge our own positions and keep us honest.