We all know that Nate Silver has developed into the gold standard of election forecasting (he even uses the words "political calculus" in his tag line - that's enough to scare off any novice who wants to challenge him). The tools Nate uses are things like polls and complicated mathematical formulas. That seems to work for him, but I think he's missing some important data that could up his game. So I thought I'd lend a hand in helping him predict what's going to happen in the 2012 presidential election.
Data Point 1
According to research, only 10% of the population is left-handed. And yet five of our last 7 presidents have been left-handed. What are the odds of that happening? I think I'll let Nate figure that one out.
So its stands to reason that a contender that is left-handed has a MUCH higher chance of winning again this time. Lets look at the candidates:
Mitt Romney - no
Newt Gingrich - no
Ron Paul - no
Rick Perry - no
President Obama - bing-bing-bing...we have a winner!
Data Point 2
While its true that half of the world's population is female, a MUCH smaller number of people have daughters. An even smaller number currently have teenage daughters. And yet five of our last 7 presidents have had teenage daughters while in the White House. What are the odds of that happening Nate?
So once again, lets check in with the candidates:
Mitt Romney - WAY too much testosterone here - so a really big NO
Newt Gingrich - This one gets a little complicated. So lets just say no and leave it at that.
Ron Paul - We know he has one son that runs amok in Congress. But overall, I'd say we can just call him "Grandpa" and say no.
Rick Perry - Interesting that there aren't more family photos from him. Kinda makes you wonder why. But this one is from back in 2000. So its a no.
President Obama - bing, bing, bing...we have a winner!
So...based on my thorough analysis, I'd say that Barack Obama has a 99.9% chance of winning re-election in 2012 (check my numbers Nate).