There's not much controversy about where the Republican base lies.
My thought is that the real predictor of what this primary is going to look like will come - not next Tuesday - but on January 21st when South Carolina weighs in. The extent to which the Iowa caucuses and NH primary influence that race will be their only significance. So that's the one I'll be keeping my eye on.
In the meantime, there are a few stories about the race that I found interesting today.
First of all Josh Marshall, who's been talking about the "Murdoch Primary," finally called it as he sees it yesterday. And the winner is...Mitt Romney. I'm not sure how he came to that conclusion since he doesn't really say. But Media Matters has been running the numbers on the Fox Primary. Their last entry was for the week of Dec. 12-18.
Secondly, I've talked before about how the lack of money for ads won't necessarily be a deal-breaker for Gingrich. That was born out by the fact that Newsmax will be running a 30 minute piece on Gingrich 200 times in all the major Iowa media markets over the weekend. In addition, both Liberty University (the school founded by Jerry Falwell) and Citizens United are running ads about Gingrich there.
Finally, the LA Times ran a story about something I've suggested will likely happen in the Iowa caucuses.
Adding an unpredictable element to the presidential contest in Iowa, some disaffected Democratic voters are planning to switch sides and cast Republican ballots in Tuesday's caucuses.
Caucus rules limit participation to registered party members. But anyone who shows up at a Republican caucus — including Democrats, independents and libertarians — can join the GOP or switch their party affiliation on the spot.
Rep. Ron Paul, in a tight race for first place in Iowa with Mitt Romney, is perhaps the most likely to benefit from Democratic crossovers. His campaign is distributing information sheets advising Iowans that they can register Republican "for a day" on caucus night, then switch their registration back afterward if they want.
So grab the popcorn. Following right on the heels of your New Year's celebration...the show is about to begin!