From extra shifts at auto and steel plants in Ohio to office buildings rising in Northern Virginia, the geography of the U.S. economic rebound is providing an edge to President Barack Obama’s re-election.Looking at the electoral college, they break it down this way.
The unemployment rates in a majority of the 2012 battleground states are lower than the national average as those economies improve. Coupled with the growth of adult minority populations in those states, the trends create a higher bar for presumed Republican Party presidential nominee Mitt Romney in his quest to unseat Obama.
Nine states switched from supporting Republican President George W. Bush in 2004 to Democrat Obama in 2008. Leaving out Indiana, which both sides say is trending toward its Republican tradition, the remaining eight are again shaping up as the central election battleground.Then Moodys weighed in to say that they don't think Romney can do that. They put together an electoral map of what they predict will happen.
Those eight states -- Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia -- have a combined 101 electoral votes. Romney must win at least 79 of those electoral votes to prevail if all other states run true to their 2004 and 2008 partisan preferences.
By way of electoral votes - that's 303 for Obama and 235 for Romney. As I've looked at the maps and the state poll aggregates, that's exactly the same scenario I've been seeing.
But just to show you what an uphill climb the current map is for Romney, if we took this scenario and added a win for him in Ohio - he still looses 285 to 253. Yes, you heard that right...Obama could lose BOTH Florida and Ohio and still have a pretty sure path to victory.
Now do you believe me when I say that all those pundits looking at national polls and saying its a tight race are full of sh*t?
Caveat: I'm NOT saying anything is in the bag. We still have 5 months to go and a lot can happen.
But our guy has the best hand right now AND the most talented campaign team AND the best ground game in the business. We go into this fight knowing they're going to throw every dirty trick in the book our way. But we don't need to get distracted by all the hysteria they're going to try to produce.
Remember the "NO DRAMA OBAMA" team? Yeah, lets do that one again!