Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Moodys predicts an Obama romp

First came this article from Bloomberg.
From extra shifts at auto and steel plants in Ohio to office buildings rising in Northern Virginia, the geography of the U.S. economic rebound is providing an edge to President Barack Obama’s re-election.

The unemployment rates in a majority of the 2012 battleground states are lower than the national average as those economies improve. Coupled with the growth of adult minority populations in those states, the trends create a higher bar for presumed Republican Party presidential nominee Mitt Romney in his quest to unseat Obama.
Looking at the electoral college, they break it down this way.
Nine states switched from supporting Republican President George W. Bush in 2004 to Democrat Obama in 2008. Leaving out Indiana, which both sides say is trending toward its Republican tradition, the remaining eight are again shaping up as the central election battleground.

Those eight states -- ColoradoFloridaIowaNevadaNew Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia -- have a combined 101 electoral votes. Romney must win at least 79 of those electoral votes to prevail if all other states run true to their 2004 and 2008 partisan preferences.
Then Moodys weighed in to say that they don't think Romney can do that. They put together an electoral map of what they predict will happen.

By way of electoral votes - that's 303 for Obama and 235 for Romney. As I've looked at the maps and the state poll aggregates, that's exactly the same scenario I've been seeing.

But just to show you what an uphill climb the current map is for Romney, if we took this scenario and added a win for him in Ohio - he still looses 285 to 253. Yes, you heard that right...Obama could lose BOTH Florida and Ohio and still have a pretty sure path to victory.

Now do you believe me when I say that all those pundits looking at national polls and saying its a tight race are full of sh*t?

Caveat: I'm NOT saying anything is in the bag. We still have 5 months to go and a lot can happen.

But our guy has the best hand right now AND the most talented campaign team AND the best ground game in the business.  We go into this fight knowing they're going to throw every dirty trick in the book our way. But we don't need to get distracted by all the hysteria they're going to try to produce.

Remember the "NO DRAMA OBAMA" team? Yeah, lets do that one again!


  1. I don't have time for the nonsense on cable news. It's not for people that are serious about politics. They're advertising a horse race that isn't there. They even note PBO's contempt for them. Romney had to dig deep to beat Gingrich and Santorum. How's Romney going to deal with the President? Romney's record is a godsend to any halfway competent opponent.


  2. I think FL and AZ seem like good chances for Obama too, he could end up with more EVs than he had in 2008.

  3. The jury's still out, let's not pop the champagne just yet...

  4. I'm afraid of the Citizen's United cash that the GOP will drop on this race and all the propaganda it will buy. Hope turnout overcomes this.