Thursday, July 12, 2012

Challenging conventional wisdom

Not many people noticed, but this week Reuters ran a very interesting headline with their latest poll showing President Obama ahead by 6 points: Obama Expands Lead on Romney, Voters More Optimistic.

What? They're talking optimism? Everyone knows that voters are stressed and terrified about the economy. Republicans have been doing everything they can to make sure of that over the last 4 years. And goddess knows its important to keep that pessimism up if we're going to tell people this is a close election.

Someone go tell those folks over at Reuters to get their story straight.



  1. Yeah. I'm catching flack at Booman's, Ragings, and a couple of other sites for being complacent when I present my analysis of the coming Prez elections.

    Usually after being pummeled into the dirt about the Prez they retreat into the downballot races as reasons for depression. They are right. Unfortunately, except for the $5k I've already sent to various downballot races outside MA, there isn't anything I can personally do to make a huge difference.

    I guess I should buy more lottery tickets...

    1. There seem to be some types at BooMan's in the last year or so who do not play well with others. It deeply disappoints me.

  2. Broadly put, I find it hard to imagine that optimism wouldn't increase barring some unforeseen catastrophe. The crash happened in 2008. As it goes into the distance people feel better.

    80,000 jobs added is not great, but the fact is that when a low-information voter reads that, they will not come to the conclusion that the economy is losing jobs, because it isn't. If the economy straight-up loses jobs, report after report, we would have a serious problem. The low numbers are a serious economic problem, but a less serious if nonetheless real political problem.

    I imagine that many in the GOP are actively hoping for a catastrophe, as if that would swing the election their way. I think, on the contrary, that it would favor the President, who knows how to work under pressure, and would show the GOP politicians to be the empty suits they are. Romney above all. That guy's a zero.

    1. That's how I see it, too. In times of crisis, voters favor the incumbent.


    2. That, but also the President is someone who clearly knows how to manage situations. He would deal with crisis well, and help him I'd think more than it would a generic incumbent.