Saturday, July 28, 2012

Is the GOP exodus showing up in Ohio and Florida?

Over the last few weeks, I've been highlighting stories of individuals who have announced their exodus from the Republican Party. Some might counter that in a country this large, a handful of people don't necessarily signify a trend.

That's why a poll released yesterday in Ohio by the GOP firm We Ask America is so interesting. Their findings are that 19% of Republicans in that state plan on voting for President Obama (8% are still undecided and 2% say they're voting for Gary Johnson).

I don't think its ever a good idea to put too much stock in one poll. But there are two reasons to pay attention to this one. First of all, its coming from a GOP pollster. But secondly, its clear that this result surprised them, so they double-checked.
What pops out immediately is the high percentage of self-described Republicans who say they will vote for Barack Obama over Mitt Romney. An outlier? Perhaps. But we went back into the field last night to test it again. The results: almost identical.
Of course we don't know why over a quarter of Republicans in Ohio would not be rallying around their presumptive nominee. But from the anecdotal evidence we've seen,  its the teahadist lunatics who are chasing the more sane folks away.

Meanwhile, it looks like there is a battle royale going on in Florida between the teahadists of Gov. Scott's camp and the allies of former Gov. Crist - just in time for the Republican convention in Tampa. Former Party Chair Jim Greer is letting loose.
In a wide-ranging deposition that spanned two days in late May, former Florida Republican Party chairman Jim Greer denounced some party officials as liars and "whack-a-do, right-wing crazies'' as he described turmoil in the months before his resignation.

Greer said some GOP leaders were meeting to discuss ways they could suppress black votes while others were constantly scheming against each other.
Just imagine how this kind of mess is likely to be affecting the party's outreach and ground game. That might help explain why polls in Florida have gone from tipping barely towards Romney to a slight edge for President Obama.

There's still a lot of conjecture in all of this. But if Republican extremism winds up costing them both Ohio and Florida (add in the split in Nevada between the Ron Paultards and GOP establishment) in the November election, they're toast.


  1. I've been saying for a year now, that the splintering of the Republican Party is imminent. I had assumed that it would be in 2017 after TP radicalism forced yet another can of whupass to opened on the innocent bystanders formerly known as sane Republicans. Maybe my timing was off? Maybe it will come in 2014? 2015?

    I think it apparent that TP will not become sane in the forseeable future. They have tasted blood and like it. Their leadership at the state level is ravenously ambitious and sees the red-meat crowd as their one chance to grasp the brass ring. These charlatans have already cost the R's the senate once (2010) and look to be doing a fair job of trying it again (King in Maine is getting lots of flack from TP types).

    Non-crazy R's are apparently getting tired of the juvenile posturing and "my d*** is bigger than yours" politicing. I think a lot of the R's are just now waking up to exactly what is happening in their party.

    Yup. 2 parties splitting the rightwing vote. Someone pass me the popcorn.

    1. The crazies took over the R party in my state - MN - a few years ago. That resulted in a 3rd party candidacy for Gov. in 2010 and a D win. Now the crazies have the R party bankrupt. It a complete mess!

    2. Sorry, Ms. Pants, but it ISN'T a complete mess. It is what you get everytime amateurs try to do the tough jobs that professionals have done before them.

      It looks soooooooooooo easy ... pick up a phone, find a venue, arrange a bar-b-q. Until you do it, it bites you in the ass and you give up go home and cry.

      They just haven't given up yet.

  2. I laugh every time I read "Ms. Pants."

  3. Well, that could be my fault. I also got Chipsticks to tell us how she came about that handle for herself.

    'Afternoon, Ms. Pants and errr'body.

    Interestingly enough, Booman is talking about, from some other perspectives, this very matter as well.

    I mean, are we REALLY serious about our country or not? And, looking at Romney over all and what is suPPOSED to be the burnishing of his foreign policy credentials starting with Australia before he even LEFT the country (and LONdon....LAWWWWD)....

    HOW can you NOT vote for PBO???? (I know, I know, but geeeezzzz).

    1. I was just coming in to "blame" you for the Ms. Pants thing LOL

    2. PS Did you see that our old "friend" Drew Westin had an article in WaPo? The title: "If Obama loses the election, here's why."

      Now what's the point of that?

      The ODS runs deep with that one!

    3. Simple. It was a love letter from Westen to himself. "If Obama loses the election, it's because he didn't listen to me."

  4. "The ODS runs deep with that one!"

    Love that!