Monday, July 16, 2012

State of the Race: Not the game-changer Romney was hoping for

As I've been saying for awhile now, Mitt Romney is in trouble in this race. To get some idea of that, check on the no toss-up states electoral college map at the conservative site Real Clear Politics. What it suggests is that if the election were held today, President Obama would win 332/206 (interestingly enough, the exact same prediction as Nate Silver.) That means that in the next couple of months, Romney needs to pick up 64 electoral votes to have a shot at this thing...not a pretty picture.

The other thing I've been saying for awhile now is that - given this picture - Romney needs a game-changer...something that can shake this race up. Lately he's been getting one of those. Only its happening in the exact opposite direction he wants.

The questions being raised about Romney's taxes, business and finances are coming close to uniting the divisions in the Republican Party - against him. Establishment groups were certainly anything but supportive yesterday on the Sunday talk shows. We've already seen that the teavangelicals haven't been won over yet. And now the Tea Party itself is grumbling openly.
What galls the Tea Party activists is the sense that Romney represents a lost opportunity for their agenda of less government, flatter taxes, and constitutional restraint. Facing a vulnerable president saddled with a bad economy and a crisis in the public sector, they feel stuck with a guy served up by Republican elites who speaks conservatism with an establishment accent. Worse, in this view, Romney seems incapable, or unwilling, to even defend himself, as the Obama campaign machine highlights his offshore bank accounts and his career at Bain Capital.

“Romney’s just not a fighter,” says Jenny Beth Martin, head of the Tea Party Patriots, the largest of the activist groups.
Ouch!!! There's that "weak" thing popping up again.

Romney needs to change the I suspect that's why reports are leaking that he'll announce his VP pick this week rather than wait until just before the Republican Convention. And while that will certainly take the focus off his Bain record for awhile, its hard to imagine how a Pawlenty or Portman or Thune repairs the damage - much less quiets the storm in the grassroots.

We've got two weeks to go until the election takes a back seat to the 2012 Olympics. Then it will be time for the conventions and we're off to the races with the fall campaign where its Mitt Romney vs President Obama mano-a mano in the debates. Clocks ticking Mr. Romney...


  1. I bet the Obama campaign is sitting on something good, waiting to step on the veep announcement.

  2. I saw that ad that the President's campaign put out, the Mitt Romney is the problem ad. Everyone has already said it, but it is immensely gratifying to see a Democrat who actually can land a punch. I had a visceral reaction to that ad's finale: "oof!"

    I don't think the President has started yet, really. Sept-Nov will be something to behold, I am sure.

  3. Someone somewhere on the right referred to "Obama's ninja campaign team" - that about sums it up. But a lot can happen between now and November...

  4. What's been interesting is the sheer incompetence Romney has demonstrated as a candidate. He's been acting like "the job is mine, now you just have to give it to me." It's mind-blowing that he never seemed to have thought that things like his actual business record, his unwillingness to release his tax returns, and his inability to "stand" for anything wouldn't be issues.

    1. I think Romney has been so use to all his life getting just what he wants when he wants it that he can't fathom not getting the Presidency. He doesn't want to work for it & he can't understand why anyone would question him. After all he is W. Mitt Romney & entitled to what he wants.

    2. Romney's pic should be in every dictionary next to the words entitlement and elitist. Because of his privileged upbringing, he feels that he shouldn't have to be subjected to the things that we "peasants" are subjected to. I see it in every campaign speech and in every TV interview he does. He may have lots of money fueling his campaign, but there are some things he doesn't have--character, convictions, principles, honesty, integrity, humility, and a willingness and ability to accept responsibility for his actions. I saw these same character flaws in GW Bush, and it's why I couldn't vote for him in 2000 or in 2004. I can only surmise that it was my BS Meter warning me that GWB wanted to be POTUS not to serve, but to stroke his own ego. He was a miserable failure that many republicans still feel the need to prop up. MY BS Meter is sending the same signals to me about Romney that I got from watching GWB.

  5. I love what one of the Weinstiens said on Rachel Maddows show. It doesn't matter how much money you pump into advertising a bad product, people still won't buy it. Mitt Romney is a bad product.