Saturday, October 13, 2012

It wasn't the debate

For months now I've been saying that I don't pay attention to national polls. But I want to talk about them right now to make a point.

Everyone is assuming that the swing in the polls towards Romney is because of the first debate. But no matter how many times people say that - its just not true.

Take a look at this graph of the national poll averages since September 1st.



If you scroll over it, you'll find that the movement towards Romney and away from Obama started on Sept. 27th and 28th. The first debate wasn't until Oct. 3rd.

So if we're assuming this has all been a result of President Obama's performance at the first debate - we're missing the story...big time.

Today Kevin Drum is the only pundit I know of who is asking the important question: What happened at the end of September that changed this trajectory?

1 comment:

  1. I wonder if it's just that the large convention bounce he got was finally receding (as convention bounces do), and then just at that point the debate happened and that pulled down the numbers some more.

    Anyway, I think Mitt has hit his high-water mark. The PPP poll from Ohio is very encouraging. I noticed that mitt and ryan duo was in Ohio talking about how Obama is selling out to the evil chinese! Wow!

    This will put about as big a dent in Obama's Ohio numbers as iphone 5 map app snafu put a dent in iphone 5 sales and satisfaction! That is, not at all!

    http://appleinsider.com/articles/12/10/12/ios-6-maps-lightning-connector-have-no-effect-on-iphone-5-demand-survey-finds

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