Saturday, November 10, 2012

Obama's coalition was with him all along

One of the things that surprised most people - especially Republicans - in the election last week is that the Obama coalition turned out to vote in 2012.

All throughout the campaign the media told us that members of this coalition - African Americans, young people, Latinos - were dispirited by President Obama's performance in office and wouldn't show up at the polls. But of course they were wrong. African Americans turned out in numbers similar to 2008 whereas young people and Latinos actually increased their participation.

The Obama campaign never believed the media hype about this. That's because they believe in data and numbers rather than spin. And if we look at what the most accurate pollster in the 2012 election - Public Policy Polling - told us way back in January 2012, we wouldn't have bought it either.
The group of voters most excited about voting this year, tied with the Tea Party, is African Americans. The thought that black voters are going to stay home and let the country's first black President lose for reelection because everything hasn't gone perfect is wishful thinking on the part of Republicans. I will be surprised if there is any dropoff in turnout from African Americans this year.

The group tied for the third most excited out of the 18 we looked at here? Young voters. And when you take a deeper look at the folks under 30 who say they're 'very excited' about voting this fall, they support Obama by a 69-31 margin over a generic Republican opponent. Those folks are going to be out again this fall as well. 
I know that the overwhelming support of Latinos for the President has been one of the big stories that emerged from this election. But we also need to give a shout-out to the most faithful constituency the Democrats have known since the 1960's...African Americans. And the really good news about the future is that young people are demonstrating that they are a force to be reckoned with in politics.


  1. Those African American kids in Florida that stood in line until 2am tell the story. In 2010, when I did a shift walking precincts and went into the OFA office in San Diego and saw that poster "we got your back". I got misty-eyed and I knew we would hold strong and that the campaign knew it too.


  2. The "media" has a lot of self-interest at stake in promoting a close election. After all, the news department is a profit center and a close election brings in a lot more political ads than a one-sided election. In a contest between objective reporting and money, money wins every time.

  3. There was no way that we wouldn't show up and vote this year because we knew there was a lot at stake---the ACA, stopping the republicans from turning the country over to corporations, and we wanted to send a message to the republicans that signaled our displeasure at the way they've disrespected PBO. Black Americans learned a long time ago that, as the president said, revenge in the voting booth is the best pay back. We, along with young voters, women, well-educated White Americans, LGBTQ Americans, Latinos, and Asian Americans were the reason Romney was shell-shocked on Tuesday when he discovered he wouldn't be POTUS #45. This shows how naive and out of touch Romney and the republicans are. They stomped on every group in America, except White males, and thought that the rest of us wouldn't notice it, and that we would go to the polls and vote for Romney. IMO, there will definitely be more political messages for them in the near future like the one they received on Tuesday night if they don't mitigate their platform, words, and actions.

    1. Albie @pabonmatriarchNovember 10, 2012 at 9:50 PM

      The surprising statistic that immediately caught my eye was the 73% Asian American vote for Obama. That is 20 points shy of the Black America vote BUT 2 points higher than the Latino vote. Most media is leaving out the Jewish vote which came in at 63% for Obama but acknowledge women impact of the vote.

      Mr. Obama's Community Organizer persona turned out to be his best asset as he was able to draw some of the best and most devoted staff for his cause and kept them focused on the strategy: to pull in voters who normally do get out to vote and registering one million additional voters. This was backed up with a massive GOTV effort.

      Face it, Team Romney expected help of the voter suppression, Governors to purge lists and decrease early voting days (horrific mistake), groups like True the Vote to challenge voters, voters to disdain waiting in lines for hours and going home, corporations to encourage their workers to vote for Romney, and those mailers which fictionalized Mr. Obama in a bad light; he expected these techniques to have a positive impact for him and a negative one for Mr. Obama.

      Mr. Romney's other mistakes include the fact that he refused to release his taxes (suggesting he was hiding something), flip-flopping (demonstrating a lack of character and strong moral code), and his monies offshored against U.S. taxation. He did not insulate himself from damaging video footage, leaks about his business at Bain, the "Rent" of tax exemption status from his church which kept him from having to pay taxes; he had too many possibilities for negative exposure.

      Turns out he did not think Mr. Obama would be a formidable opponent; that a few lies levied at him would cause Mr. Obama's base to erode. He misunderstood Mr. Obama to his own detriment.