Tuesday, November 4, 2014

It may all come down to Iowa

Of course I'll be watching the election results tonight and - due to the very real possibility of runoffs - into the next few months. But the states I'll be focusing on when it comes to control of the Senate are Colorado, Alaska and Iowa.

I am not convinced the polling is accurate in Alaska or Colorado. Here's why:

  1. Almost no one trusts the polling there. This article about St. Paul Island is a pretty good description of why.
  2. That article is also informative about the incredible ground game that has been deployed by Begich - the Democratic candidate. 
  1. This is the first year that all registered voters received a mail-in ballot. That will likely change the "fundamentals" that many poll aggregators cook into their books.
  2. As Nate Cohn documents, pollsters have not found a way to accurately incorporate Hispanic voters. In a state where they represent 21% of the population, that could make a difference.
  3. Colorado is the state where the Democratic ground game (Bannock Street Project) was invented and is the reason Bennet won his Senate seat in 2010 - a year that was notoriously bad for Democrats.
If Begich and Udall defy the polls and win - its very likely that control of the Senate will come down to the race in Iowa. That's as far as I'm comfortable going with a prediction. But be sure and check out BooMan as he dives a little deeper into prognostication. 

No comments:

Post a Comment