Monday, June 1, 2015

"There's This Anti-Hillary Vote. It Just Isn't Very Big.”

For Democrats who are hoping that an alternative to Hillary Clinton will emerge from Iowa, the results of the latest Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register poll of likely caucus-goers doesn't bode well.


People will suggest that this poll was conducted prior to O'Malley's announcement this weekend. And they have a point. He'll likely move up in the polls now that he is an actual candidate. But he's been spending an awful lot of time in Iowa and is still being beaten by VP Joe Biden - who hasn't even tipped his hand about whether or not he's going to run.

Sen. Bernie Sanders is running on the issues that have always made him popular with the anti-establishment left. He's doing a bit better than he might have in the past because Sen. Elizabeth Warren has energized that wing of the Democratic Party lately and he's capitalized on that.

But so far, former Gov. O'Malley has made a political error in thinking that he can vie with Sen. Sanders for the support of that wing of the party. Here's a sample of that from his speech on Saturday. Speaking of the "privileged and the powerful," he said:
We need to prosecute cheats, we need to reinstate Glass-Steagall, and if a bank is too big to fail without wrecking our nation’s economy…then it needs to be broken up before it breaks us…again.

Goldman Sachs is one of the biggest repeat-offending investment banks in America. Recently, the CEO of Goldman Sachs let his employees know that he’d be just fine with either Bush or Clinton.

I bet he would…

Well, I’ve got news for the bullies of Wall Street —

The presidency is not a crown to be passed back and forth by you between two royal families.
As J. Ann Selzer, president of the company who conducted this Iowa poll said, "There's this anti-Hillary vote. It just isn't very big." O'Malley seems to think that there's some value in splitting that vote with Sanders, which frankly, only helps Clinton. For a guy whose reputation has been built on being "data-driven," that's hard to understand.

I suspect that what has led O'Malley to this strategy is all the talk that has been generated about the "populist" movement in the Democratic Party that started back when Elizabeth Warren and Bill De Blasio won their elections. A lot of ink has been used up by political pundits claiming that it signaled the future of the party.

What a lot of those pundits missed is that the coalition that elected President Obama...twice...is actually the future of the Democratic Party. Mayor De Blasio's huge win in NYC was as much about his promise to end "stop and frisk" for young men of color as it was about his populist economic agenda.

So far, Hillary Clinton seems to be the only candidate in the race that recognizes the importance of the Obama coalition. But in 2008 they rejected her candidacy in favor of Obama and still might be up for grabs if someone would notice. Absent that, Clinton's appeal to establishment Democrats combined with her outreach to the Obama coalition will likely make her unbeatable.

5 comments:

  1. What a lot of those pundits missed is that the coalition that elected President Obama...twice...is actually the future of the Democratic Party. Mayor De Blasio's huge win in NYC was as much about his promise to end "stop and frisk" for young men of color as it was about his populist economic agenda. The group of (mostly white) populist Democrats who have been receptive to politicians like Warren and Sanders is not big enough to win a presidential election.
    ******************
    Says it alllll!!!

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  2. "So far, Hillary Clinton seems to be the only candidate in the race that recognizes the importance of the Obama coalition. But there are large parts of that coalition that rejected her candidacy in 2008 in favor of Obama and still might be up for grabs if someone would notice. Absent that, Clinton's appeal to establishment Democrats combined with her outreach to the Obama coalition will likely make her unbeatable. "



    ^Bullshit. You people are truly clueless & out of touch if you actually think the entire PBO coalition [this includes Black & Brown folks] are going to blindly vote for Clinton or any other candidate that outrights disrespects, disregards, or vows to completely dismantle the progress that was made under this President for the pure sake of Whitewashing history & appealing to Jim Crow minded voters [Repubs & Dems] whom want to pretend like this man didn't win twice or coded desire to "take their country back" to a time of "normalcy"-----you're in for very a rude awakening.


    2010 & 2014 where warning signs. Runaway/Disrespect PBO at your own political detriment. Senator Obama had to walk on eggshells to earn the nomination & general election--nothing was handed to him; same standard should apply for those who seek to follow him. Period.

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    1. My whole point was to suggest that - at least so far - it is Martin O'Malley who is disrespecting and disregarding PBO's legacy. Whether or not it will work - Hillary Clinton is the one who is reaching out to the Obama coalition.

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  3. Absolutely Nancy. O'Malley has made a huge mistake by disrespecting President Obama and not giving any credit for the accomplishments of this administration. If he turns it around his pathetic roll out may not be fatal. If you have not read Allan on at the Peoples View, please.

    BTW, thank YOU for all that you do. I can't seem to get WP to work for me. So this is Sabreen60.

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  4. Martin O'Malley should have just ran for Senate instead, he would have won. Now he's just a dustmite.

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