Wednesday, January 20, 2016

What Do You Think of the Presidential Primary So Far?

The folks at First Read published some really interesting numbers from the latest NBC/WSJ poll today. Respondents were asked whether the primary made them feel more or less favorable to the Republican Party. Here are the results:

African Americans: 57% less favorable, 5% more favorable (-52)

Latinos: 45% less favorable, 13% more favorable (-32)

Whites: 40% less favorable, 22% more favorable (-18)

All: 42% less favorable, 19% more favorable (-23)

By comparison, here is what those same groups said about how the primary was affecting their view of the Democratic Party.

African Americans: 29% more favorable, 5% less favorable (+24)

Latinos: 29% more favorable, 17% less favorable (+12)

Whites: 33% less favorable, 14% more favorable (-19)

All: 28% less favorable, 17% more favorable (-11)

The numbers that stand out are those for African Americans (R -52/D +24) and Latinos (R -32/D +12). For white voters, the two parties are pretty even (R -18/D -19). While not a direct representation of who they will vote for, this is some actual data that refutes the whole premise of the article from Politico that I wrote about earlier.

The general election is still over nine months away and a lot can happen between now and then. Everyone assumes that whoever becomes the Republican nominee will moderate their message once the primary is over. We'll see. But what is interesting about these numbers is that they are more of a reflection on the Republican Party as a whole than they are about any one candidate. That's not good news for the GOP.

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