Tuesday, February 9, 2016

Does Sanders Have a Lock on the Millennial Vote?

The huge story coming out of the Iowa caucuses is that Bernie Sanders won the millennial vote 84/14. Thus developed the meme that he has a lock on that age group around the country. But does the polling bear that out?

The problem with checking that out is that there are very few polls of states that will weigh in after New Hampshire - and even fewer that provide information based on age. So with the caveat that these are merely individual polls and should be taken with a grain of salt, here is a bit of evidence to test the meme that has developed.

Based on this NBC/WSJ poll (Feb. 2-3), it looks like the New Hampshire results will closely mirror what happened in Iowa with those under 45.

Sanders 72%
Clinton 27%

One of the states that holds its primary on March 1st (Super Tuesday) is Georgia. Here is how the under 40 vote looks in a poll conducted by Landmark Communications (Feb. 4).

Sanders 13.5%
Clinton 61%

North Carolina holds its primary on March 15th. Here's what Public Policy Polling (Jan 18-19) found for voters under 45 in that state.

Sanders 31%
Clinton 51%

Perhaps these polls in Georgia and North Carolina haven't accurately captured the millennial surge in those states. Or perhaps Bernimania will catch on there as the vote gets closer. Or maybe, like other age groups, a more diverse collection of millennials will vote differently than the mostly white group that we've seen in Iowa and New Hampshire. We'll have to wait and see. But it's still a little early for all of the assumptions about how Sanders has a lock on the millennial vote.

1 comment:

  1. As I said before Iowa and New Hampshire are the whitest States In The Union. Not everyone is buying into the anti-establishment nonsense he's selling. This is the same guy who has been in public office for over 25 years and has done jack sh#t in those 25 years. Now he's the anti-establishment candidate. POC can see right through that mirage.