Question of the Hour: Has Putin Lost His Mind?

On Sunday, there was both good and bad news about Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine. Here's a summary of where things stand on the ground from a Pentagon briefing with reporters:

Russian troops entered Kharkiv overnight, and while they remain about 30 kilometers (19 miles) to the north of downtown Kyiv, reconnaissance elements have been operating in the capital city, the senior defense official said. Some members of those reconnaissance units have been wearing Ukrainian uniforms and have been outed by locals, the official added. It remained the Pentagon’s assessment on Sunday morning that the Russian military still has not seized control of any Ukrainian cities.

The Pentagon believes Russian forces are still about 50 kilometers (31 miles) outside of central Mariupol, an important port city along Ukraine’s southeastern coast. “Mariupol will be defended,” said the senior defense official, who credited Ukraine with mounting a “creative resistance” that was both “heroic” and “inspiring.” But the official cautioned that Russia still has significant “operational advantages” over Ukraine and would probably learn from errors that had slowed Russian forces’ advance in the days ahead.

The Russians have faced logistical challenges in sustaining support for the units operating in Ukraine, the senior defense official noted. The Pentagon has also determined that some, though not the majority, of the more than 320 missile launches Russia has undertaken against Ukraine have suffered failures.

The good news is that both Russia and Ukraine have agreed to send delegations to the border between Ukraine and Belarus for negotiations.  

BREAKING: Zelenskyy announces on Telegram a meeting between Ukrainian and Russian delegations on the Ukraine-Belarus border. Meeting without preconditions. pic.twitter.com/2fsDwuX1bC

— Alex Ward (@alexbward) February 27, 2022

Here's the bad news: 

Here's Putin just now ordering Russia's deterrence (nuclear) forces on "a special regime of duty" in response to foreign sanctions. It's a DEFCON situation. pic.twitter.com/Hhmq5ZAMmO

— Kevin Rothrock (@KevinRothrock) February 27, 2022

Let's first note that, before Putin sent troops to invade Ukraine, a lot of very smart people thought he was bluffing. So it would be a huge mistake to assume that he's bluffing now. But after decades of nuclear powers recognizing that the use of those weapons could very well mean global annihilation, is the Russian president prepared to take that risk? Frankly, it all comes down to whether or not he's a madman. 

Especially after his deranged speech last Monday, people have been questioning Putin's mental state. Senator Marco Rubio sits on the Senate Intelligence Committee and recently tweeted this: 

I wish I could share more,but for now I can say it’s pretty obvious to many that something is off with #Putin

He has always been a killer,but his problem now is different & significant

It would be a mistake to assume this Putin would react the same way he would have 5 years ago

— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) February 26, 2022

Michael McFaul, who served as Obama's ambassador to Russia tweeted this: 

I’ve watched and listened to Putin for over thirty years. He has changed. He sounds completely disconnected from reality. He sounds unhinged.

— Michael McFaul (@McFaul) February 26, 2022

Former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said that Putin "has gone off the rails" after acting in a calculated manner in years past.

The New York Times reported that people have noticed that Putin “has fundamentally changed amid the pandemic, a shift that may have left him more paranoid, more aggrieved, and more reckless.”  Ryu Spaeth asked the question directly, "Is Putin sane?"

Two years since the onset of COVID, the Russian leader remains severely isolated, interacting with cabinet officials largely via video and keeping trips abroad to a minimum. When he does have to meet people face-to-face in Moscow, whether it’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov or French president Emmanuel Macron, they must first pass through a “disinfection tunnel” and then sit at a social distance of Olympian proportions, at tables so long that they have become a physical manifestation of Putin’s remoteness from the rest of the world.

When Putin made the announcement about putting his nuclear forces on high alert, two of his military leaders joined him. Here's what the scene looked like:

I'm not going to speculate any further - other than to say that if a madman is in control of a country with a nuclear arsenal, we are all in serious danger. 

Hopes for avoiding that nightmare come in two forms. One is the fact that negotiations between Russia and Ukraine have been agreed to by both parties. The other is that there have been some tiny cracks in Putin's support from the Russian oligarchs he has empowered.

Promising signs of the elite split? Two big Russian Olygarchs: Alfa Bank's Mikhail Fridman and Rusal's Oleg Deripaska have cautiously started to speak up against war at this point.

— Maria Snegovaya (@MSnegovaya) February 27, 2022

Signs of cracks in Russian elite. First Fridman, then Deripaska. Now Anatoly Chubais has just posted picture of Boris Nemtsov on his Facebook page. Nemtsov, seen by some as Yeltsin’s first choice 4 president, was murdered in front of the Kremlin seven years ago today pic.twitter.com/2jrLm4A3Oe

— Oliver Carroll (@olliecarroll) February 27, 2022

With those oligarchs facing the twin threats of massive debilitating sanctions that are likely to tank the Russian economy and a leader who could be insane enough to start a nuclear war, will they actually step up and do something to stop him? Let's hope so.