To be honest, I'm in no mood to celebrate the new year. In addition to having to listen to MAGA nonsense over the next four years, my head is full of trepidation about a possible financial crisis, another badly-managed pandemic, and an escalating climate crisis.
But in her usual brilliant manner, Heather Cox Richardson reminded me of another impending disaster related to Trump's re-election - and this one (like the climate crisis) has horrific long-term consequences.
She started by noting Elon Musk's public support for Germany's neo-Nazi AfD Party. In response to an op-ed Musk wrote in a German newspaper, she quoted Jens Spahn - the State Secretary of the German Ministry of Finance.
The AfD wants to leave NATO, reactivate Nord Stream 2, and is anti-US, pro-Putin and pro-Russia. Is that what the USA wants? A Germany that turns towards Russia and away from the USA?
The AfD wants to leave the Eurozone, our by far largest trading partner. We conduct ~40% of our trade within Eurozone. Without the Euro and the EU, the German economy would completely collapse.
Heather went on to link all of that to Trump's threats against Mexico, Canada, Panama, and Greenland.
Trump is not threatening our rivals, but rather is threatening our own allies in the area around the U.S. And now Musk is supporting an anti-NATO, pro-Russia party in Germany. It could be that what we are seeing is an attempt to throw away NATO and America’s influence across the globe in order to carve up the world into spheres, with Trump offering to abandon Europe to Russia while the U.S., run by the DOGE faction of the Republican Party, officially takes control of a U.S.-centric sphere.
This is precisely where Putin's agenda is headed. To understand, it is important to know that his overarching ambition is to overturn the "rules-based order" that was established after World War II and return to the "great powers era." Gabriel Glickman described the two pillars of the "rules-based order."
After World War II, an elaborate financial network — from lending institutions like the IMF to a currency valuation system — was established to increase economic cooperation between countries. This was done to prevent the harmful economic competitiveness that caused the Great Depression and created the conditions for the rise of fascism...
As the postwar period transitioned to a competition between capitalist and communist nations, military conflict between powerful countries became more likely. NATO was established in 1949 as a form of collective security that could deter Soviet militarism. This was the second pillar of the international order, along with institutions like the United Nations that promoted diplomacy over war.
When Richardson writes about carving the world up into spheres, abandoning Europe to Russia while the U.S. takes control of our sphere, she's describing Putin's dream of a return to the "great powers era."
This is the conflict that is central to Putin's invasion of Ukraine. He is attempting to show Russia's dominance in his sphere - while the Biden administration and Europe have been defending the rules-based order that protects the sovereignty of national borders.
What Richardson is pointing out is that Trump's threats against our allies are tied to Putin's invasion of Ukraine in that they are all motivated by an attempt to overthrow the international order that has (so far) been successful in preventing World War III.
If you want to know one of the things that keeps me up at night...there it is.
So no, I don't feel like celebrating the beginning of 2025 where the only hope I have is that enough people wake up to the potential nightmare we're facing in order to afford us the possibility of stopping what's coming.
But for being such a downer, I'll end with my favorite New Year's Eve song by the marvelous Bette Midler.
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