Monday, January 13, 2025

Who are you going to believe? The guy who started the lie about immigrants eating pets, or the facts?

On Sunday, when asked how the incoming administration would handle issues like immigration, Vice President-elect J.D. Vance told a whopper of a lie.

A dumpster fire? Really? 

When it comes to specifics, Vance mentioned depleted FEMA funds, a wide open southern border, rising oil prices, rising bond yields, and the federal deficit. Here are some facts about those issue:

FEMA funds 

The current tally for billion-dollar extreme weather disasters in the US is hovering around 23 or 24 so far this year, according to Adam Smith, a climatologist with NOAA who helps compile the government’s count of expensive extreme weather disasters. That number is unofficial and likely to change, but it includes hurricanes Debby, Helene and Milton, and it could possibly grow to add a separate complex of earlier severe summer storms.

“This is the most open disasters that I have seen with FEMA, and it’s because we’re seeing an increase in the number of events,” Criswell said Wednesday. “We had an incredibly busy tornado season earlier this year. We had catastrophic and historic levels of flooding across many states this spring as well. We’ve had wildfires across much of the West.”

In other words, climate change is turning "weather events" into "billion-dollar extreme weather disasters." While MAGA is content to blame all of that on DEI, government regulation, and Democrats, the toll that will take on FEMA will continue to rise. 

Wide open southern border 

The number of migrants arrested illegally crossing the U.S.-Mexico border in December was lower than when President-elect Donald Trump ended his first term in 2020, according to preliminary figures shared with Reuters, a relative calm that Trump could upend with sweeping changes.

Rising oil prices 

Oil extended gains for a third session on Monday, with Brent crude rising above $80 a barrel to its highest in more than four months, driven by wider U.S. sanctions on Russian oil and the expected effects on exports to top buyers India and China.

Those sanctions were just imposed on Friday. Here's the longer-term picture on oil prices: 

Statistic: Average annual Brent crude oil price from 1976 to 2024 (in U.S. dollars per barrel) | Statista
Find more statistics at Statista

Bond yields

According to Paul Krugman:
[I]ncreases in long-term rates, like the 10-year Treasury rate, might reflect the horrible, creeping suspicion that Donald Trump actually believes the crazy things he says about economic policy and will act on those beliefs...What does this have to do with interest rates? There’s near-unanimity among economists that Trump’s announced agenda of high tariffs, tax cuts and mass deportations would be highly inflationary.

Federal deficit 

But those facts don't even begin to address the level of Vance's lie. Contrary to the idea that Biden is leaving a dumpster fire, Peter Baker documented that "by many traditional metrics, the America that Mr. Trump will inherit from President Biden...is actually in better shape than that bequeathed to any newly elected president since George W. Bush came into office in 2001."
According to Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, "President Trump is inheriting an economy that is about as good as it ever gets."

Here's the question facing Americans: Who are you going to believe? The guy who started the lie about immigrants eating pets, or the facts? The idea that our politics these days comes down to how someone answers that question is enough to drive us all mad. 

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Who are you going to believe? The guy who started the lie about immigrants eating pets, or the facts?

On Sunday, when asked how the incoming administration would handle issues like immigration, Vice President-elect J.D. Vance told a whopper o...