As we watch a militarized effort to terrorize black and brown immigrants (while importing white racists from South Africa), it is important to keep in mind the basis for this campaign. No one has articulated the fear better than white nationalist Richard Spencer back in 2015 as Trumpism was taking hold on the right (emphasis mine).
“Trump, on a gut level, kind of senses that this is about demographics, ultimately. We’re moving into a new America.” He said, “I don’t think Trump is a white nationalist,” but he did believe that Trump reflected “an unconscious vision that white people have – that their grandchildren might be a hated minority in their own country. I think that scares us. They probably aren’t able to articulate it. I think it’s there. I think that, to a great degree, explains the Trump phenomenon.”
Fox News and Republicans fully embraced the white supremacist great replacement theory sparked by this fear.
The demographics these folks are referring to didn't simply spring up in the last few years as a result of recent increases in immigration. Demographers have been pointing them out for decades now.
The real news is that, in addition to immigration, these changes are also based on birth rates. For example, "Children born in 2011 are members of this country's first majority-minority birth cohort." Another milestone was reached in the 2020 census: white non-Hispanic youth are now a minority (47%) among those under 18 years of age. Projections are that whites will be a minority in this country by 2044.
All of this led to an important analysis in the Washington Post back in 2018. At the time, the first Trump administration had released a plan to severely restrict legal immigration - especially from countries in Africa and South America. The Post found that, if implemented, the plan would "delay the date that white Americans become a minority of the population by as few as one or as many as five additional years." Here's why (emphasis mine):
Experts say the main driver of diversification in the United States is the native-born Hispanic population, which grew by about 5 million from 2010 to 2016, just as the native-born white population shrank by about 400,000 over the same period, according to Census Bureau data...
“You can shut the door to everyone in the world and that won’t change,” said Roberto Suro, an immigration and demography expert at the University of Southern California. “The president can’t do anything about that. If your primary concern is that the American population is becoming less white, it’s already too late.”
The truth is that the Trump administration can't deport enough undocumented immigrants to change the trajectory that is underway. The bad news is that this is why they're going after legal immigrants and birthright citizenship. It is also why they probably won't hesitate to deport black and brown citizens.
Very much related to these efforts is the prevalence of natalism on the right - especially from folks like Elon Musk and J.D.Vance. The whitest age cohort in this country - baby boomers - is dying off and not being replaced by births.
If these folks were really concerned about population decline, they'd be welcoming MORE immigrants. Instead, they want (white) women to have more babies. It's all an ugly mixture of misogyny and racism.
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