Immigrants and domestic migrants could be major factors in the Texas Senate race.

A few weeks ago I wrote about how MAGA influencers are trying to convince their base that - despite Trump's growing disapproval rates - the "glass is half full" because more people are moving to red states. For example, here's what Ingrid Jacques wrote:

Americans are voting with their feet to head to places that resonate with their values, whether on taxes, abortion or school choice.

And red states are winning.

National Review combined the data with a nod to the "great replacement theory" in an article titled: "Americans Vote with Their Feet for Red States."

The blue-state model simply doesn’t work for its citizens. That’s why they keep leaving, and why those states need to keep importing noncitizens by hook or by crook to replace them. Four years with less access to that spigot ought to force those states to reconsider how they treat American citizens.

There is a reason why they don't provide any data to back up the great replacement claim. It's because they made it up out of whole cloth. For example, here's what's been happening in the very blue Twin Cities metropolitan area of Minnesota:

Recent growth has been heavily driven by positive domestic migration (more Americans moving to the state) rather than international arrivals, which previously made up a larger share of the population.

 In the red state of Texas, Frisco was identified in the 2020 census as the fastest-growing American city.

The 2000 census put Frisco’s population at 33,000. By 2020, it was 200,000...With that growth, the demographics have also shifted. The 2020 census estimated that around a quarter of Frisco residents were Asian [immigrants]; city planners now estimate that Asians account for one-third of the population.

My point a few weeks ago was that, white these MAGA influencers got the data right, they're totally missing the actual consequences. 

The question I would have for these commentators is whether they've considered the possibility that perhaps the voters who are moving to those [red] states are bringing their "blue values" with them.

The answer to that question could have major implications for the Texas Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton. That's what an article by Russell Contreras suggests. He points out that, since the 2020 census, Texas has gained more than 2.5 million new residents and that "newcomers tend to be less tied to Texas' long-standing political patterns." His bottom line is that "Texas isn't suddenly blue. But it is bigger, newer and less predictable — and that's enough to make Paxton's Senate race uncomfortable for Republicans."

Of course, Republicans have more to worry about than those population changes. They also have to deal with the fact that Trump is bleeding support among Hispanics and that the Republican nominee is arguably the most corrupt politician in the country. 

The first polling to be released since the Republican run-off election shows Talarico leading Paxton by 3 points (47-44). But the number that jumped out to me is that Talarico leads among independents by over 40 points (64-21).  According to exit polling from the 2024 Senate race between Ted Cruz and Colin Allred, independents made up 36% of voters - most likely including some of the "less predictable" new residents.