Right wing influencers try to convince MAGA that the glass is half full

Trump approval among 2024 voters from The Economist 

While the entire MAGA movement is motivated by fear, I have always been fascinated that - when it comes to electoral politics - Republicans have consistently promoted a message that "the glass is half full." For example, even as it is clear that they'll lose the 2026 midterms, right wing commentators regularly celebrate the fact that voters in blue states are migrating to red states, demonstrating that they're desperate to promote good news to the troops.

Recently I've seen two examples of this:

"Democrats 'lost the plot.' Now they're losing voters" by Ingrid Jacques, and

"5.4 Million People Have Migrated To Pro-Trump Counties Since 2020 As The Great Divorce Continues" by the Editorial Board at Issues and Insights.

The conclusion from the folks at Issues and Insights is simply absurd.

We keep hearing how unpopular Trump and his policies are....While that might be what people tell pollsters, their own actions – picking up and moving to a new county or a different state – speak much louder.

Millions of Americans would rather live among Trump supporters than those voting for the likes of Kamala Harris.

The reasons people move from one state to another are complex. But I doubt that anyone ever said that it was primarily because "I don't want to live among people who voted for Kamala Harris." 

It's also quite likely that these commentators are badly misinterpreting the data. Jacques points out that the "red states" people are moving to include Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Texas. Georgia is already a "purple state," while North Carolina and Texas have been (albeit slowly) moving in that direction. To give your some idea of how MAGA is doing in those states right now, Trump's job approval among 2024 voters is -5 points in Texas, -9 in North Carolina, and a whopping -17 in Georgia. 

The question I would have for these commentators is whether they've considered the possibility that perhaps the voters who are moving to those states are bringing their "blue values" with them.

Instead of analyzing data from states, the editors at Issues and Insights researched county data. Of the ten counties experiencing the largest influx, five of them are in Texas, and all of those are suburban counties in the metro areas of Dallas, Houston, or Austin. While cities have consistently been blue and rural areas red, over the last decade or so, suburban counties are increasingly moving from Republican to Democratic. It's at least worth wondering if that trend is being impacted by migrants from blue states.

I am reminded of a story a friend of mine told about her white parents moving from Minnesota to North Carolina for retirement. When her mother went in to get a driver's license, she registered to vote. The African American clerk asked whether she wanted to register as a Republican or Democrat. When the answer was the latter, the clerk put her hands together, looked up, and mouthed "thank you."

If you're a MAGA influencer watching people move from blue states to red states, you just might want to consider if the glass is half empty (and draining fast).