Republican Primary: Limbaugh vs Rove

I've been hesitant to spend too much time on the GOP primary and its candidates. That's because the real art of political commentary is predicting the future and this field has simply been too fluid to catch a glimpse of how things will shake out.

For a while I thought it was possible that the rift between an establishment and a tea party favorite might leave an opening for a third candidate to break through - much like we saw McCain get the nomination with the split between Romney and Huckabee in 2008.

But after last night's debate - it seems clear there is no McCain in the race and it will come down to between Romney and Perry. Of course there's still the possibility that another candidate will jump in the ring. But the only one I hear about as a possibility these days is Guliani and I don't think he has the constituency to take on either one of these guys.

So its likely to come down to establishment vs tea party. In that sense, this could become a primary between Limbaugh and Rove. Tein has a good diary at The People's View about that. It will be a fight between money and organization vs Republican primary voters and how they're ginned up by the right wing media.

I have a lot of mixed feelings about that. First of all, I think Perry would be a much easier candidate for President Obama to beat. There's the specter of a lunatic candidate throwing out red meat to his base sparking up the enthusiasm of the opposition. And think about the sane Republican voters and Independents. Their dilemma will be whether to vote Democratic or stay home.

On the other hand, it would strike me as a sad day in the United States if one party's primary voters would endorse a man for President who brags about being anti-science and revels in how many people he's executed. What that would say about Republican voters is a much bigger deal than who they nominate for President.

But then there's the issue of the monied establishment vs voters. I always come down in favor of the later. When all else fails, I tend to root for democracy.

Ultimately, I don't have a dog in this show. Whoever the Republicans nominate, I'll do all I can to defeat them and re-elect President Obama. But in the spirit of "country over party," I do have some mixed feelings about how this one plays out.