Seeing the patterns

A few years ago a friend gave me one of those pearls of wisdom that you come to cherish in life. She said, "The great thing about getting older is that you start to see the patterns."

Even if you don't have a psychology degree online you learn things like this with time and experience.

That helps explain, for example, why adolescence is so hard...you think that every challenge, broken heart or mood swing will last a lifetime. As we get older, we tend to learn that's not the case - which allows us to take our lumps and know that there will be brighter days.

I think of that today especially when so much of the news is about hair-on-fire reactions to the latest polls. While the poutragers get their adolescent undies in a bunch about things like this (today Markos declared that Obama is in the gutter), I tend to see this as one moment in a long process that will unfold over the next 14 months.

Remember when we were cautioned earlier this summer about reading too much into the spike in Obama's approval numbers after the killing of Osama bin Laden? The same thing applies now. Approval ratings for all national politicians have plummeted since the mess over the debt ceiling deal. At some point, national and/or international events will emerge that affect those poll numbers for better or worse - depending on the event.

For example, think of the things that happened just in the months after both parties had completed their primaries in 2008. First of all, McCain chose Sarah Palin as his running mate. Then there was the debacle of McCain in the presidential debates. And finally - there was the complete collapse of the economy followed by McCain's idiotic move to suspend the campaigns. You think Romney or Perry aren't capable of these kinds of guffaws?

And then there is the possibility of events outside the campaign that are likely to influence voter sentiment. Of course everyone is focused solely on the economy as the single factor. But think about some of the major events of the last 3 years that were totally unpredictable (everything from the Arab Spring to the BP Oil Spill) and imagine what might happen next.

Finally, we have the trifecta of a brilliant campaigner in Barack Obama, the genius of David Plouffe, and the millions of us who will work our asses off in the campaign.

As I said yesterday, I'll put my money on optimism and unity over fear and division any day. Polls 14 months out? Not so much.