Thursday, March 1, 2012

2012 is starting to look a lot like 2008

According to Ruy Teixeira:

Obama, it seems, is well on his way to reconstructing the very coalition that elected him in 2008.

Consider these results from a recent Pew Center poll. In this poll, Obama is 8 points ahead of Romney, close to his victory margin in 2008 (7 points). But what is especially fascinating in this poll is its internals—how Obama is faring with key subgroups of voters. Start with minorities. Obama gets 93 percent of the black vote (he got 95 percent in 2008) and 79 percent of minorities overall (he got 80 percent in 2008). (The poll does not provide data on Hispanics, but the two most recent national polls of Hispanics give him 67 percent of these voters, identical to his 2008 performance.)

He also gets 44 percent of the white vote, compared to 43 percent in 2008. Moreover, if you break the white vote down by working class and college-educated, his performance is even more impressive. Among white college-educated voters he ties Romney 49-49, compared to the 4 point deficit he ran against John McCain, and loses white working voters by only 41-55, compared to his 18 point deficit against McCain.

This must be my day for giving my dark side a little room for expression. This morning I let loose with some of my fears and this article leads me to want to wallow in some "I told you so's."

I immediately remember all the times I've been in conversations with those from the left, right, and center who were caught up in bemoaning how President Obama was in over his head...destined to sink in the ship the Republicans had made for him. One particular blue dog type that I regularly conversed with on another blog was always accusing the President and his team of committing "political malpractice." I'd get extremely tired of being accused of having some kind of blind loyalty for defending the choices President Obama was making by trying to help people see his long game.

Perhaps tomorrow I'll get in touch with my mature self. But tonight I want to look at news like this and rub people's noses in the fact that I was right all along to believe in him.


  1. I agree, we do not want to put the cart before the horse. This is very clearly not a done deal, especially this far out. However, every week that goes by the better things feel. Obama looks increasingly strong, and the entire GOP field continues full speed towards the cliff!

    Politics isn't boring any more!

  2. It is nice to have good news to wake up to on occasion. This far out, it's very tenuous and apparently hinges on situations in the economy that little can be done about. This is probably the reason the right is trying desperately to move the national conversation back 45 years.

    However, there was a reason that all the "liberal agenda" got publicly supported by both Democrats and Republicans. The public actually liked the results. Fewer daughters and sisters and nieces were dying from back alley abortions. Fewer people were railroaded into bogus confessions. Fewer religious demogagues got to push their brand of rightiousness on to your rightiousness.

    Yup, the Right is trying in pushing the conversation back 45 years. Fortunately, they are succeeding.

  3. The numbers may well improve over time, too, since Obama has hardly been campaigning yet and the Republicans have been getting all the attention. I just hope things look equally bright for Congress. At the very least we need to get the House back. The more support Obama has in Congress, the more he'll be able to get done.

  4. The eerie similarities continue to mount up, even when you don't look at the hard data. For instance, I remember thinking in 2008 that McCain was one of the least presidential looking candidates I could remember. Romney may give him a run for his money. The guy just looks *so* uncomfortable that I have to wonder how the guy ever won any political office at all. Was Massachusetts just a fluke?

    On another point, I've been constantly amazed at those who question the political skills of a man who went from State Senator to President in six years, defeated the two most powerful political machines in the country (The Clintons and the Right-Wing Noise Machine) and did this while suffering the liability of being black!