Friday, September 21, 2012

State of the Race: When it's down to North Carolina, we're winning

A few months ago folks were worrying about President Obama loosing Pennsylvania. Now, according to Nate Silver's model, Obama has a 91.6% chance of winning there.

Next we worried about Michigan. Now, Obama's chances are at 95.7%.

After that came Ohio. Now, Obama's chances are at 74.8%.

And then came Wisconsin. Now, Obama's at 82.1%.

Should we worry about Virginia? Nah, Obama's at 70.9%.

But its supposed to be a close election. Surely that means Obama couldn't win Florida too. Yep, he has a 59.4% chance of winning there.

And what about Iowa? 72.2%

Or Colorado? 66.5%

And certainly no one is worrying any more about Nevada (80.3%) or New Mexico (96.5%).

That covers all the swing states except North Carolina - where Romney has maintained a lead all along. Until today. Two polls show President Obama with a slight lead there. The HuffPo model is basically calling it a tie at this point (Silver hasn't done an update yet today).

As Markos pointed out, Obama is doing better in the battleground states today than he was against McCain four years ago at this time.

Last time I wrote about the state of the race I predicted that President Obama would win all the swing states (including North Carolina) and that would put him at 347 electoral votes. Today I'll stand by that prediction.

For months now I've been saying that Romney needed a game-changer to get back in this race. What we've seen since then is that he has a habit of turning opportunities into gaffes. If that keeps up, this thing is only going to get worse for him. So I'm tempted to go with BooMan and start wondering what other red states might be turning into toss-ups before this thing is over.

As we talked about recently, its time to start thinking about not just winning this thing, but winning it big. We're already starting to see the momentum have a positive impact on some Senate races (Silver has a Democratic majority at 77.7% right now) and some are even starting to predict that we'll take back the House.

This is no longer about winning a close election. Its about dealing a serious blow to the Teapublicans!

9 comments:

  1. Do you think Arizona's in play? I've got my eye on AZ and Georgia. I'm seeing MI could prove competitive as well.

    Vic78

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    1. I'm not seeing it in Arizona - but who knows.

      Right now Huffpo's model has Romney up by only 4 in Georgia and 5 in Missouri.

      I'd LOVE to see Georgia be the next state to peel away from the sure-red South. I know there were some hopes about that 4 years ago that didn't pan out.

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    2. Oops, perhaps I spoke too soon about Arizona.

      Just saw that the Purple Strategies group polled there and has it Romney 48/Obama 45. Its just one poll, but who knows?

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  2. As I said to the Booman: I want some of what you're smoking if you truly think MO, IN or GA is going to be in play at this point (although of the three, MO is the most likely).

    Anything can happen when a campaign is in freefall, even to the point of putting in play states that are almost legally obliged to be Republican.

    I'll continue to wait for the polls to show a shift. However, if you are trying to claim a PERCENTAGE increase from 2008... well that's a totally different story. I'll buy that as a working hypothesis right now.

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    1. I'm not claiming those states are in play now. And I certainly never even mentioned Indiana.

      The question is whether or not the current momentum continues or if we've reached the ceiling. I'd suggest that's an open question right now.

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  3. He didn't campaign as much as he could've in Ga 4 years ago. It'll change soon enough.


    Vic78

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  4. PBO is only 3pts behind in ARIZONA!!!!

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  5. Here's something to think about. The debates haven't happened yet. Do you remember Romney's performance against non entities like Bachmann and Perry? I do. Fairly unimpressive. "All Romney has to do is not loose these debates"...said Fox News... Now he HAS to win (by a decisive margin) against the President. Does anyone really think that's a possibility?

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    1. People are in denial when it comes to debates. Obama had difficulty with Hilary Clinton. Romney had difficulty with Gingrich and Rick Perry. It's going to look like a professor schooling a disrespectful freshman. We know who the profs going to be.

      Vic78

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