A few months ago folks were worrying about President Obama loosing Pennsylvania. Now, according to Nate Silver's model, Obama has a 91.6% chance of winning there.
Next we worried about Michigan. Now, Obama's chances are at 95.7%.
After that came Ohio. Now, Obama's chances are at 74.8%.
And then came Wisconsin. Now, Obama's at 82.1%.
Should we worry about Virginia? Nah, Obama's at 70.9%.
But its supposed to be a close election. Surely that means Obama couldn't win Florida too. Yep, he has a 59.4% chance of winning there.
And what about Iowa? 72.2%
Or Colorado? 66.5%
And certainly no one is worrying any more about Nevada (80.3%) or New Mexico (96.5%).
That covers all the swing states except North Carolina - where Romney has maintained a lead all along. Until today. Two polls show President Obama with a slight lead there. The HuffPo model is basically calling it a tie at this point (Silver hasn't done an update yet today).
As Markos pointed out, Obama is doing better in the battleground states today than he was against McCain four years ago at this time.
Last time I wrote about the state of the race I predicted that President Obama would win all the swing states (including North Carolina) and that would put him at 347 electoral votes. Today I'll stand by that prediction.
For months now I've been saying that Romney needed a game-changer to get back in this race. What we've seen since then is that he has a habit of turning opportunities into gaffes. If that keeps up, this thing is only going to get worse for him. So I'm tempted to go with BooMan and start wondering what other red states might be turning into toss-ups before this thing is over.
As we talked about recently, its time to start thinking about not just winning this thing, but winning it big. We're already starting to see the momentum have a positive impact on some Senate races (Silver has a Democratic majority at 77.7% right now) and some are even starting to predict that we'll take back the House.
This is no longer about winning a close election. Its about dealing a serious blow to the Teapublicans!