A mad and dangerous king

A lot of the discussion lately about Trump's unfitness for office has focused on the obvious signs of dementia and the discoloration on his hands/neck. But as he becomes increasingly more volatile, it is important to remember that, before any of these symptoms showed up, he met the criteria of someone with disturbing mental health issues. 

Due to the stigma associated with talking about mental health, a lot of people don't know how these illnesses are diagnosed. The standard format for doing so is to review whether their behavior meets certain criteria outlined in the Diagnostic and Statistics Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM). So, for example, a person is diagnosed with Narcissistic Personality Disorder (NPD) if they exhibit at least five of the following:

• Having a grandiose sense of self-importance, such as exaggerating achievements and talents, expecting to be recognized as superior even without commensurate achievements
• Preoccupation with fantasies of success, power, beauty, and idealization
• Belief in being "special" and that they can only be understood by or associated with other high-status people (or institutions)
• Demanding excessive admiration
• Sense of entitlement
• Exploitation behaviors
• Lack of empathy
• Envy towards others or belief that others are envious of them
• Arrogant, haughty behaviors and attitudes

After having observed Donald Trump on the national stage for over 10 years now, it doesn't take a rocket scientist (or psychiatrist) to conclude that the President of the United States exhibits all nine characteristics that are associated with NPD. When it comes to his increasingly volatile behavior, this explains a lot.

The president didn't bother to explain why he started a war with Iran, nor did he develop a plan for its implementation. That's pretty classic for someone exhibiting behaviors associated with Antisocial Personality Disorder (what we used to call sociopathy). In order to be diagnosed with that disorder, a person must exhibit at least three of the following:

• Failure to conform to social norms with respect to lawful behaviors as indicated by repeatedly performing acts that are grounds for arrest
• Deceitfulness, as indicated by repeated lying, use of aliases, or conning others for personal profit or pleasure
• Impulsivity or failure to plan ahead
• Irritability and aggressiveness, as indicated by repeated physical fights or assaults
• Reckless disregard for safety of self or others
• Consistent irresponsibility, as indicated by repeated failure to sustain consistent work behavior or honor financial obligations
• Lack of remorse, as indicated by being indifferent to or rationalizing having hurt, mistreated, or stolen from another.

One could argue that Trump's NPD keeps him from personally engaging in physical fights or showing a reckless disregard for his own safety. He merely has others do the violence for him. But otherwise, we have a president who regularly engages in criminal behaviors, lies compulsively, has been a con artist for his entire adult life, and never shows an ounce of remorse for the pain he has inflicted on others. But also notice that one of the behaviors associated with APD is impulsivity, or failure to plan ahead. For years it has been obvious that Trump shoots first and aims later. It is horrendous to see that one playing out now in his war with Iran.

In addition to dementia, two things are happening that escalate Trump's NPD and APD. The first, as Leah McElrath pointed out above, is that the president is facing his own mortality, which makes him more dangerous.

Josh Marshall did a great job of articulating the second contributor.

A couple months ago, I said that we were starting to see a pattern. As Trump grew less popular and less powerful at home, he would need to compensate to maintain his psychic equilibrium. He’d lean more and more into the presidency’s prerogative powers that are untrammeled and unrestrained regardless of what’s going on at home or how much support he has. He’ll be increasingly aggressive and violent in those realms of power and he’ll become more constrained and limited in others. In Trump’s world, there is dominating and there is being dominated. For him, the latter is a psychic death. So leaning hard into these prerogative powers where a president is, in effect, all powerful amounts to a kind of grand and bloody self-care...

To my mind, Trump is doing these things abroad precisely because he’s lost control of the situation at home.

I wish there was some magic wand we could wave to stop all of this. But unfortunately that moment passed on November 5, 2024 when too many people voted for this mad man. The important thing right now is to stop normalizing what's going on and name the fact that this president is a mad and dangerous king.

Who is MAGA?

Cracks are beginning to form in the MAGA coalition. That initially became evident with the Trump administration's mishandling of the Epstein files. Slightly below surface is the ongoing battle over anti-semitism being fueled by people like Tucker Carlson, Candace Owens, and Nick Fuentes.  

No that Trump has started a war with Iran, those cracks are beginning to widen. Many of MAGA's most powerful influencers are breaking ranks with the president in ways that are unprecedented, given the cult-like devotions they've shown in the past. In typical fashion, Fuentes has been the most explosive.

Fuentes calls the decision to start a war with Iran his "breaking point" and that he's "off the Trump train." He goes on to say that he won't vote in the 2026 midterms and if Rubio or Vance are on the ticket in 2028, he'll vote Democrat. Frankly, I'll believe it when I see it. But them's fighting words, for sure.

Fuentes, however, isn't the only one. MAGA influencers breaking ranks with Trump include Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, Matt Walsh, Candace Owens, Sohrab Ahmari, and even gun-for-hire Eric Prince. Those are just a few that I've noticed. Perhaps there are others.

At this point, right wing cable news channels like Fox and NewsNation have maintained their allegiance to the president. It's the podcasters and the anti-interventionist faction that aren't happy with their leader's latest move. As has been noted, that latter group includes VP Vance's allies - putting him in an awkward position. 

Given that Carlson and Kelly reach the largest audiences, Rachel Bade reached out to the president to ask him for a response to their criticisms. 

“I think that MAGA is Trump — MAGA’s not the other two,” Trump said, referring to Kelly and Carlson. “MAGA wants to see our country thrive and be safe. And MAGA loves what I’m doing — every aspect of it."

Of course, that is his narcissism talking. But is it true? Could Trump maintain his dominance over conservatives if MAGA influencers turned their backs on him and quit propping up his lies? I have my doubts. 

No, Trump did not set a trap for Democrats with his false dilemma

During his State of the Union speech, President Trump offered something logicians call a "false dilemma," defined as "an informal fallacy based on a premise that erroneously limits what options are available." Here's what he said:

Tonight, I’m inviting every legislator to join with my administration in reaffirming a fundamental principle. If you agree with this statement, then stand up and show your support. The first duty of the American government is to protect American citizens, not illegal aliens.

Conservatives often use a false dilemma to make their point (ie, "America, love it or leave it" and "You're either with us or against us") because it reduces complex issues to simple either/or options and allows them to demonize those who disagree with them.

Because Democrats refused Trump's premise and remained seated, the White House and MAGA influencers claimed that the president set a trap and Democrats walked right into it. If dumbing down our politics is the goal, I suspect they have a point. But it is pretty easily refuted.

First of all, we need to ask a few questions about how the Trump administration is demonstrating that their first duty is to protect American citizens. What about Renee Good and Alex Pretti - American citizens that were murdered by ICE agents? How about the hundreds of American citizens who have been illegally detained by ICE? Just one example would be ChongLy "Scott" Thao.

ICE agents illegally broke into his house and dragged him outside in below zero temperatures in his underwear and slippers - only to release him hours later AFTER they reviewed his papers. 

Back in October 2025, ProPublica documented that more than 170 U.S. citizens had been detained by ICE. That number is much higher after the Metro Surge operation in Minnesota. 

So that's how the Trump administration demonstrates its duty to protect American citizens...murder them and/or lock them up.

Democrats want to ensure the safety of American citizens - especially when it comes to upholding the rights established by our Constitution. We also want a few things when it comes to the people Trump calls "illegal aliens?" I'd offer this list:

• Stop lying about immigrants being garbage and criminals 
• Provide due process and judicial warrants to enter private property (this is actually a protection for everyone - including U.S. citizens)
• Follow the law for those who are came here legally (ie, TPS, DACA, those with valid asylum claims, etc.)
• Stop racial profiling (another protection for everyone - including U.S. citizens)
• End arbitrary quotas for the number of people deported
• Stop rendition to prisons in other countries
• Stop lying about deporting the "worst of the worst" and actually make it a focus
• Affirm the constitutionality of birthright citizenship
• Allow a pathway to citizenship for those who have been contributing members of their community for years

As I've said before, Democrats have NEVER favored open borders via rhetoric or policy. We are in favor of protecting American citizens AND establishing a humane immigration system. There's nothing radical about that. The problem is that Trump and his MAGA enablers refuse to engage with us on these issues based on truth, the rule of law, and our Constitution.

Minnesota doesn't need lectures on accountability from the corrupt liars in the White House.

During his State of the Union speech, President Trump said this:

When it comes to the corruption that is plundering — really, it's plundering America. There's been no more stunning example than Minnesota, where members of the Somali community have pillaged an estimated $19 billion from the American taxpayer...

This is the kind of corruption that shreds the fabric of a nation, and we are working on it like you wouldn't believe. So, tonight, although it started four months ago, I am officially announcing the war on fraud to be led by our great Vice President, J.D. Vance. We'll get it done.

And if we're able to find enough of that fraud, we will actually have a balanced budget overnight. It'll go very quickly. That's the kind of money you're talking about.

As he does so often, the president pulled that $19 billion number out of thin air. The U.S. Attorney who had been responsible for prosecuting fraud in Minnesota (before he recently resigned) estimated $9 billion in potential fraud. But that number is also suspect. The Minnesota Star Tribune did the legwork and documented $218 million from court records so far. 

When it comes to balancing the budget via fraud, we'd all do well to remember that Elon Musk was going to cut federal spending by $2 trillion via the elimination of waste, fraud, and abuse. His DOGE efforts actually increased the deficit by $286 billion. 

But there's another problem with Trump's statement. The federal government spends about $600 billion on Medicaid per year (the program being targeted for fraud). The federal budget deficit is currently running at about $1.9 trillion per year. So even if the entire Medicaid program were eliminated, it wouldn't come close to balancing the budget. 

The real kicker is that the president (who was convicted on 34 counts of fraud) has appointed Vice President Vance as the so-called "fraud tzar" - the same guy that admittedly lied about immigrants eating our pets. 

It didn't take Vance long to get to work. On Wednesday, he announced that the Trump administration will pause $259 million in Medicaid payments to Minnesota. The vice president said that these payments would be paused "until the state government takes its obligations seriously to stop the fraud that's being perpetrated against the American taxpayer."

It's really rich being lectured about obligations from an administration that is the most corrupt in this country's history with a president who has pardoned dozens of people who committed billions of dollars worth of fraud. But there you have it.

In light of that, it might be helpful to take a moment to document what Minnesota has actually done to combat fraud. Bullet points should suffice.

• The Minnesota Department of Human Services has conducted more than 3,000 investigations since 2020 and referred more than 500 cases to law enforcement.
• 94 defendants have faced criminal charges for fraud since 2021.
• Tim O'Malley was appointed as head of program integrity across state government (ie, state "fraud tzar'). He is a judge, former superintendent of the Minnesota Bureau of Criminal Apprehension, and former FBI agent.
• An outside firm was hired to audit payments to high-risk programs at the Department of Human Services and a specialized fraud-fighting law enforcement unit was created at the Bureau of Criminal Apprehension. 
• Payments to providers in 14 Medicaid programs were paused while systems were audited.
• Housing Stabilization Services, which used Medicaid dollars to help people find and keep housing, was discontinued.
• The day before the president's State of the Union speech, Tim O'Malley released a nine-pillar overhaul on how Minnesota prevents, detects and responds to fraud.
• State Democratic leaders have proposed a dozen anti-fraud bills this session.
• As I write, Gov. Walz is introducing his own anti-fraud legislative package.

If you got through all of that - congratulations. Gov. Walz put it best, I think.

Detecting fraud is resource intensive and time consuming — especially when it comes to the federal Medicaid programs that have a complex interplay between private insurance companies and federal, state and county governments. Is it impossible? No. We have made significant progress. We have much more to do.

The one thing that isn't going to help is to get lectures on accountability from the corrupt liars in the White House.

What happened to Ilia Malinin?

I have always loved figure skating because it combines three of my favorite things: athleticism, music, and dance. So, of course, I've been keeping an eye on Ilia Malinin (aka, "The Quad God") recently. He has revolutionized the sport and taken it to a whole new level in a way that only a handful of athletes have ever done. 

When Malinin stepped onto Olympic ice on Friday in Milan, Italy, he led the field by five points. Beyond that, skaters from Japan and France - who were in second and third place - had skated poorly. Based on the technical merits of Ilia's program, it wouldn't have mattered if they had skated perfectly. A clean skate by the American would have given him the gold medal with lots of room to spare.

If you've been paying attention to the Olympics, you know that's not what happened. Malinin's program was a disaster - so much so that he wound up in 8th place overall. Like the rest of the world, I was in shock. 

Almost immediately, the recovering therapist in me began to try to construct what happened because it was obvious that the failure was a result of Ilia's mental game. In an interview immediately after his skate, he mentioned that perhaps he was overconfident and owned that he blew it. 

That's when I thought about his performance two months ago at the ISU Grand Prix Final in Japan. Ilia hadn't skated well in the short program and found himself in third place - a position he hadn't been in for quite some time. Under those circumstances, here's how he responded in the free skate. 

At the end of that program, Ilia almost looked like he was angry. He was fighting back and skating as if to prove something to himself and the audience. The result was a perfect skate that included a quadruple axel (something no other human has ever done in competition) and seven quad jumps (another feat no other human has ever accomplished). The announcers were absolutely speechless. Ilia's score for that skate was 238, a world record and 82 points higher than he earned Friday at the Olympics.

More than the pressure of the Olympics (which must have been epic for this young man), I'd suggest that the difference between his performance at the Grand Prix Final and the Olympics captures the biggest takeaway when we wonder WTH happened to Ilia. At the former, he had to go out and fight for it. When it came time for the Olympics, the gold medal was practically handed to him on a platter. 

This is part of Ilia's personality that he he's talked about before. For example, after placing second in the U.S. Nationals competition, he wasn't invited to be part of the 2022 U.S. Olympic team. He's said that it was his anger at that decision that pushed him to stretch and expand what is possible in the sport. Fighting back is what made him the phenomenon he became. 

On the one hand, this is an obstacle Ilia will have to figure out how to overcome. There's no going back on his talent and skills as the best figure skater in the world today. On the other hand, it will be fascinating to watch how this disastrous performance at the Olympics affects his skating going forward. I have a hunch that the next time he steps on the ice he will do so with a vengeance that could rock the figure skating world. It's likely to look something like this:

Struggling with the yin/yang of this moment

Every morning as I peruse the news I feel like I'm on an emotional roller coaster. I feel the rage/grief as I read headlines like "Immigrant whose skull was broken in 8 places during ICE arrest says beating was unprovoked." On the other hand, I feel hope/pride as I read ones like "Nearly 30,000 Minnesotans trained as constitutional observers."

I suspect that's precisely why these lines from the Charles Dickens book, "A Tale of Two Cities" are so often quoted.

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way...

Dickens captured something important that flies in the face of much that we believe about the world. It is in moments of darkness that light shines its brightest. 

All of that is why today, I'm thinking a lot about the ancient taoist idea of Yin/Yang.  

Don't ask me what I mean by all of that because honestly, I don't know. It just seems like a truism we're living out on a daily basis right now. I suspect it's has something to do with embracing the fact that we're intensely experiencing both the dark/light and not getting caught up in denying either one. 

Or maybe it's about something that showed up on my Facebook feed a few days before the winter solstice.

This is how I see humanity most days. Right when it feels like everything is tightening. When empathy gets quieter, patience runs thin, and it seems easier for people to choose outrage over understanding. When it feels like we’re losing more ground than we’re gaining.

But that’s the trick of the season. The darkest stretch convinces you this is how it will stay.

We’re three days from gaining daylight again. Not because anyone fixed everything overnight, but because cycles still exist. Because even after all our noise, the planet keeps reminding us that contraction is not the end of the story.

The light doesn’t rush back. It returns slowly. A minute here. A breath there. And somehow, that’s enough to change the direction of everything.

Maybe humanity is there too. Not healed. Not solved. Just quietly turning back toward something better, whether we notice it yet or not.

One thing I DO know is that this is still my favorite Bruce Springsteen performance. 

Trump's organizing principle: racism

During a discussion with Chris Hayes, Adam Serwer offered a great response to Donald Trump's racist social media post about the Obamas. 

Adam Serwer: “Donald Trump is still psychically wounded by the election of Barack Obama.” @adamserwer.bsky.social

[image or embed]

— Barbara Kaskosz (@kaskosz.bsky.social) February 6, 2026 at 7:45 PM

Here's what Serwer said: 

What people have to understand is that people like Donald Trump think that they are better that other people, not because of something that they've done, but because they are white. And so when they are confronted with an example of Black genius - for example, the first Black President of the United States - they have this violent emotional reaction, because they feel like their place in the hierarchy has been disturbed. And so they have to put Black people back in their place...What's very clear is that Donald Trump is still psychically wounded by the election of Barack Obama and his ongoing popularity. 

Chris Hayes also noted that, for Trump, racism is "an organizing principle." He's right. And it doesn't just apply to the Obamas.

To demonstrate, let's go back a couple of months to late November when the New York Times published an article about welfare fraud in Minnesota. Then in December, right wing podcaster Nick Shirley released a video of lies about fraud in Minnesota daycare centers. For most of December, MAGA was on offense, having hit the trifecta of a way to undermine Democratic Governor Tim Walz, demonize immigrants, and trash the social safety net. Democrats were on their heels trying to figure out how to respond - leading Walz to drop out of the governor's race in Minnesota.

How did Trump respond to all of that? Did he send in teams of prosecutors to investigate and prosecute fraud? No. He called Somalis "garbage" and said he wanted to kick them all out of the country. Then on January 6th, DHS announced the launch of the largest immigration enforcement operation ever carried out, sending 2,000 agents to Minnesota. 

Last week Mark Mitchell, head pollster at the right wing firm Rasmussen, wrote something I agree with - but from the opposite perspective.

The discovery of rampant alleged fraud in Minnesota was a gift. It offered a rare opportunity to shift the national conversation away from Republican dysfunction and toward something Americans overwhelmingly agree on. Three-quarters of voters are angry about the level of waste, fraud, and abuse in the federal government...

This was the moment for a full-scale, anti-blue-state fraud push. Follow the money. Subpoena everything. Make examples. Send every agency in, even the 80,000 armed IRS agents we should have fired. If fraud is that widespread, maybe austerity is not the answer. Maybe arrests are.

Instead, the focus shifted.

ICE was surged into Minneapolis. What could have been a systemic fraud investigation became a performative deportation spectacle. Predictable protests followed. Then escalation: more ICE presence, masks, tear gas, aggressive enforcement. Within days, the headlines were no longer about uncovering fraud. They were about clashes, optics, and ultimately the tragic shooting deaths of two protesters.

Donald Trump is so consumed with racism that he missed the opportunity to implement a "full-scale, anti-blue-state fraud push" and, instead, let his goons loose in Minnesota to terrorize people of color. The political backlash to the latter has been epic.

Meanwhile, when it comes to fraud, the administration's actions have resulted in a decimation of the U.S. Attorney's Office in Minnesota, leading to a level of incompetence that is staggering.  

Trump's posting of the video of the Obamas demonstrates that, rather than learning from his mistakes, he is preparing to double-down on racism. I suspect that he is not capable of doing otherwise. His narcissistic ego is dependent on thinking he's better than other people because he's white.