No commentary required 6/11/12

Here are some stories that caught my eye today.

How much do you think race played a role in the 2008 election? Apparently more than most people will admit.

Add up the totals throughout the country, and racial animus cost Mr. Obama three to five percentage points of the popular vote. In other words, racial prejudice gave John McCain the equivalent of a home-state advantage nationally.

Yes, Mr. Obama also gained some votes because of his race. But in the general election this effect was comparatively minor. The vast majority of voters for whom Mr. Obama’s race was a positive were liberal, habitual voters who would have voted for any Democratic presidential candidate. Increased support and turnout from African-Americans added only about one percentage point to Mr. Obama’s totals.

If my findings are correct, race could very well prove decisive against Mr. Obama in 2012. Most modern presidential elections are close. Losing even two percentage points lowers the probability of a candidate’s winning the popular vote by a third. And prejudice could cost Mr. Obama crucial states like Ohio, Florida and even Pennsylvania.

In what looks like a play for 2016, Jeb Bush finds a way to criticize the Republicans and blame President Obama. It really does boggle the mind.

"Ronald Reagan would have, based on his record of finding accommodation, finding some degree of common ground, as would my dad — they would have a hard time if you define the Republican party — and I don’t — as having an orthodoxy that doesn’t allow for disagreement, doesn’t allow for finding some common ground," Bush said, adding that he views the hyper-partisan moment as "temporary."...

Bush called the present partisan climate "disturbing."

"It’s just a different environment left and right," he said of "this dysfunction."

And Bush also blamed President Obama for much of the conflict.

"His first year could have been a year of enormous accomplishment had he focused on things where there was more common ground," he said, arguing that Obama had made a "purely political calculation" to run a sharply partisan administration.

Do you think I should remind Bush that President Obama spent the first year of his term trying to ensure the country didn't fall into a second great depression (caused by his brother's policies) and proposing what had formerly been a Republican plan to reform health care? Nah...waste of time.

Please keep an eye on Nate Silver's election projection. As of today, his model predicts that President Obama will get 292 electoral votes (that's up 9 since June 1st) and his chance of winning the election is at 63% (up 5 since June 1st). Now imagine that, since the last unemployment report when the media started predicting doom and gloom for President Obama, Silver is  showing strong improvement in his odds of winning. Who are you gonna believe?

Finally, if you want to know how to make a rousing case for Democrats and the re-election of President Obama, let MA Gov. Deval Patrick show you how its done.



Thanks to Linda H. at what IS working for making this video.