A Competitive House Race in South Carolina Is Possible

Before we get to the midterm elections in November, the GOP primaries are shaping up to be quite a show - especially in the Senate, where Trump and McConnell are waging a battle against each other behind the scenes. 

With 435 races in the House, things get more complicated. But at least one contest is garnering some national attention. Last week Katie Arrington announced a campaign to primary Rep. Nancy Mace in South Carolina's 1st congressional district. Mace has not only sparred with Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, she blamed Trump for the Jan. 6 insurrection at the Capitol, accusing him of inciting the crowd with his rhetoric and Big Lie. On the other hand, Arrington was one of the first to declare that the GOP was the party of Donald Trump back in 2018.

Of course, Trump immediately endorsed Arrington. The next day Mace released this video:

I’m standing in front of Trump Tower with a message this morning…#SC01 #LowcountryFirst pic.twitter.com/CpmMYA63qt

— Nancy Mace (@NancyMace) February 10, 2022

That kind of blatant pandering isn't likely to help Mace at this point. But it demonstrates the control the former guy has these days over Republicans. 

To understand what's at stake in this race it's helpful to know a little history. Back in the 1990's, a deal was reached to create a majority-black congressional district in South Carolina. The rural counties of the historical black belt in South Carolina make up much of the district, but it sweeps south to include most of the majority-black precincts in and around Charleston, and west to include most of the majority-black precincts in and around Columbia. That is how SC's 6th congressional district was formed. Jim Clyburn has represented that district since 1993.

In a classic case of gerrymandering, the "low country" of the 1st congressional district is situated along the coastline to the east and south of the 6th district, grabbing as much of the majority white areas as possible. To demonstrate, the 6th district is 36% white and the 1st is twice that, at over 70%.

After ensuring a solidly white-majority district, Republicans were successful in maintaining control of the 1st district from 1980 until 2018. Then something out-of-the-ordinary happened. Republican Mark Sanford had represented the district for three terms starting in 2012. But he faced a primary challenge from none other than Katie Arrington in 2018. She sent him packing that year, but went on to lose the general election to Democrat Joe Cunningham. Mace retook the seat for Republicans in 2020. That is why, in the video above, Mace said that her opponent is uniquely qualified to make Republicans lose this seat to Democrats in 2022.

Regardless of who wins the Republican primary, they will face Democrat Annie Andrews in November. Here's her introductory video:   

As an active member of Moms Demand Action for Gun Sense in America, we can rest assured that Republicans will attack Andrews for wanting to take guns away from law-abiding citizens. But here's what she says on her web site:

I support the second amendment. If you are a law-abiding gun-owner, I have no interest in your guns. Frankly, I have never been particularly interested in a conversation about guns, but I am interested in a conversation about bullet holes in children, and what we can do to prevent them. 

I'd say that's pretty compelling!

In order to reduce the risk of repeating what happened in 2018, Republicans will gerrymander the 1st  and 6th congressional districts. Noting the major shifts of voters in the Charleston area, which has experienced one of the state’s biggest population growths in the last decade, Mary Green wrote:

In that region, South Carolina’s only currently competitive seat — the 1st Congressional District, now held by Republican Nancy Mace — would become more favorable to Republicans, taking in more of Berkeley County in the Hanahan and Daniel Island areas. The district would also add part of Jasper County, near Hilton Head...

Meanwhile, the 6th Congressional District, represented since 1993 by Democrat Jim Clyburn, would add voters in the Johns Island and West Ashley parts of Charleston under the proposal, along with some precincts in Sumter County.

Just to be clear, both Berkeley and Jasper Counties are majority white, while Sumter is majority Black. So gerrymandering these districts based on race is still the name of the game in South Carolina.

Both Cook and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate this race as "solid Republican." Perhaps the gerrymander will prove effective and they'll be right. But I have a feeling that, come November, it will be a bit more competitive than that.