Ohio Senate Race: A Test Case in the Heart of the Rust Belt

The Ohio primary is less than a month away and Donald Trump still hasn't endorsed a Republican in the Senate race. Much of the media coverage has focused on Josh Mandel and J.D. Vance, who appear to be in a contest to show which of them can be more extreme in their attempt to get the nod from the former guy (or at least to win over his supporters).

What hasn't garnered much attention is that, at this point (with polls showing that almost 30% of likely voters are undecided) the race is essentially a tie between Mandel and millionaire investment banker Mike Gibbons, who has poured $11 million of his own money into his campaign. 

Perhaps recognizing that he had lost his lead to Gibbons, Mandel got into a bit of a dick-swinging contest with his opponent at a recent debate.

Mike Gibbons and Josh Mandel get in each other’s faces at tonight’s GOP #OHSen forum hosted by FreedomWorks.

“You watch what happens,” Mandel says. pic.twitter.com/fQuqfHxXHT

— Heartland Signal (@HeartlandSignal) March 18, 2022

The dick-swinging continued long after the debate was over. 

In light of all of that, I have to admit to being amused when Jane Timken, the only woman in the race, put out an ad suggesting that her opponents are "guys who overcompensate for their inadequacies" while referring to herself as "Trump [cough, cough] tough." 

Demonstrating what happens to a frontrunner in a large Republican primary field, this clip of Gibbons from back in September finally garnered some attention this week:

Ohio GOP Senate candidate Mike Gibbons on a Crain’s Cleveland Business podcast:

“The top 20% of earners in the U.S. pay 82% of federal income tax — and, you do the math, and 45% to 50% don’t pay any income tax… The middle class is not really paying any kind of a fair share.” pic.twitter.com/VUYzPTlqmX

— Heartland Signal (@HeartlandSignal) April 8, 2022

These millionaires (Senator Rick Scott included) don't seem to have learned anything from another investment banker, Mitt Romney, who once suggested that the 47% of Americans who don't pay federal income taxes are freeloaders. Of course, he went on to lose Ohio to the Black guy.

The question for these two candidates is "what is their actual agenda for supporting the economic interests of working class voters of Ohio?" On his web site, Josh Mandel never addresses the issue. As his campaign slogan says, he's all about being "pro-God, pro-Gun, and pro-Trump." It probably won't surprise you that Gibbons dishes out the same old Republican line about trickle-down economics.

Politicians don’t create jobs, businesses do. I have created jobs. I know firsthand that businesses create jobs when taxes are low and government gets out of the way.

So when it comes to Republicans, working class voters in Ohio have a choice between grievance politics and trickle down economics from a guy who thinks they don't pay enough in federal taxes.

In the Democratic primary, it is pretty clear that Tim Ryan will emerge as the nominee. As one of the more conservative members of the House, he wouldn't necessarily be my first choice. But then, I'm not an expert on Ohio politics. Someone who is an expert - Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown - has gone all-in for Ryan. 

So Sherrod Brown says that Ryan will put workers at the center of his agenda. But according to Jasmine Ulloa at the New York Times, Ryan is struggling to connect with white working class voters.

Mr. Ryan is trying to win back his party’s voters...throughout Ohio as he runs for Senate. His problem in Trumbull exemplifies the larger problem for Democrats in the Midwest: The lingering appeal of Trumpism and the erosion of support for the party among the white working-class voters who once formed a loyal part of its base in the industrial heart of the country... 

Like other Democrats in long-shot races, Mr. Ryan must stay firmly within a narrow lane as he vies to replace Senator Rob Portman, a Republican who is retiring. Mr. Ryan does not tout Medicare for All and other transformative policies that tend to energize progressives, and he does not want to talk about transgender women in sports and other divisive issues. Instead, he wants to campaign strictly on jobs, manufacturing and taking on China. 

Regardless of which Republican extremist wins the nomination next month, this Senate race in Ohio will be a test case for whether or not a white male centrist Democrat can win back working class voters in the Rust Belt. That's what I'll be keeping my eye on between now and November.