Monday, July 22, 2024

Vance's Dilemma

Yesterday's news rocked the political world as Biden pulled out of the 2024 presidential race and the Democratic Party immediately coalesced around VP Harris as the presumptive nominee. The angles on what this means for November are endless, but one take that I've found interesting was captured by Michael McFaul on Twitter. 

As you know, Trump said that the January 6th insurrectionists were justified in their chants of "hang Mike Pence." On the other end of the spectrum, Biden bowed out and passed the torch to his vice president. The contrast couldn't be more clear. 

But all of that reminds me that Trump's current running mate, J.D. Vance, is going to have to walk a very fine line. That's because, even before it became clear that the former president is suffering from dementia, he was clearly diagnosed with Narcissistic Personality Disorder (among other things). 

Way back in 2016, Richard Greene wrote about what it means to deal with someone who has NPD (emphasis mine).

There are only two ways to deal with someone with NPD, and they are both dangerous. There is no healthy way of interacting with someone with this affliction. If you criticize them they will lash out at you and if they have a great deal of power, that can be consequential. If you compliment them it only acts to increase the delusional and grandiose reality the sufferer has created, causing him to be even more reliant on constant and endless compliments and unwavering support.

Vance has already shown that he's willing to bite the bullet and feed Trump's delusion with loyalty and praise. His dilemma is going to come from elsewhere. What Greene didn't mention is that people with NPD not only demand total loyalty (which Pence wasn't willing to give when it meant participation in a coup), they also need to demonstrate their dominance over everyone around them. 

J.D. Vance is a very smart guy with ambitions and his own ego to support. Folks are already claiming he's won the battle to be the next GOP leader. But Trump will turn on him in a hot minute if the VP candidate even comes close to out-shinning the guy at the top of the ticket. 

So Vance has to walk the fine line of bowing to Trump's dominance while not coming off as too weak and submissive to be the next MAGA leader. He'll get no sympathy from me for having to maneuver that minefield. It's what the entire GOP has brought on itself by turning a political party into a cult of personality.

4 comments:

  1. It's not a cult of personality. It looks that way because it is two cults at once. It is a cult of ideology and a cult of affect. The affect is more important. Trump is a B on the ideology and an A+ on the affect. He can lose points on the ideology without losing votes; he cannot lose points on the affect without losing votes. It is the primary reason why his audience identify with him, because the affect is all they have. Vance has the ideology but not the affect. He's trying -- God help him, he is trying -- but Trump is trying too. He has to make an effort to keep up with them. He quit speaking in sentences a long time ago and sometimes he does not even speak in words. Vance will always speak in sentences, and that will crimp the identification.

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  2. And now that Vance is proving to be a joke, barely getting laughs from a handpicked, supportive crowd, Trump has to decide whether to jettison Vance. Talking heads in Russia want Trump to "fire" Vance and replace him, but if he gives him the boot, what does that say about Trump's ability to choose the right people? It really makes Trump out as ineffective, even with some of his fans.

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    1. Trump’s fans would probably applaud Trump replacing Vance if Trump got the messaging right. “Vance disappointed me, so I fired him. Just like I’ll fire anyone in the White House who isn’t doing what it takes to Make America Great Again.” But Trump is all about protecting Trump’s ego. Trump doesn’t want to admit to himself that he made a mistake. He doesn’t want to take even the slightest chance that his supporters will be less enthusiastic about him at his next rally. So I would be very surprised if Trump replaces Vance, and would take it as an indication that my understanding of Trump’s psychology is fundamentally wrong.

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    2. Agree with you 100% Kenneth. Trump's NPD is going to be a major liability now that the script has been flipped. As you say, Trump will never admit to anyone, but especially himself, that he made a mistake. If Vance is "fired," it will be a combination of the Kremlin pressuring Trump with kompromat behind the scenes, while the public view will be exactly as you say: "You're fired!"

      As for VP Harris, I think that if she chooses Mark Kelly as her running mate, the calls will only grow for Trump to get rid of Vance. The next few weeks should prove very interesting!

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