Putin's Last Stand

Vladimir Putin has told several lies about why he invaded Ukraine. But recently his foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, said the quiet part out loud.

If you don't get how vital the battle for #Ukraine is, let Sergei Lavrov explain:

"This is not about Ukraine at all, but the world order. The current crisis is a fateful, epoch-making moment in modern history. It reflects the battle over what the world order will look like".

— David Patrikarakos (@dpatrikarakos) March 20, 2022

That was essentially my take when the invasion began.

The kind of unity Biden has nurtured in response to Russia's aggression is the "new world order" that Putin despises as a threat to his vision of a return to the Great Power politics of the 19th Century. Those are the two world views battling it out over the situation in Ukraine right now.

Andrey Makarychev, professor of regional political studies at the University of Tartu in Estonia, laid it out similarly.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has exposed a clash of two fundamentally different conceptions of power in international relations.

On the side of the invader, power is primarily about military force projection and aims to destroy, kill, and intimidate. On the side of the Euro-Atlantic West, power is inherently normative. It is based on shared principles and rules as well as on multilateral institutions that sustain them. Never before has the contrast between the two philosophies of power been so lucid.

Back in 2014, when Russia first invaded Ukraine, President Obama articulated what was at stake during a speech in Brussels.

So I come here today to insist that we must never take for granted the progress that has been won here in Europe and advanced around the world, because the contest of ideas continues for your generation.

And that’s what’s at stake in Ukraine today. Russia’s leadership is challenging truths that only a few weeks ago seemed self-evident, that in the 21st century, the borders of Europe cannot be redrawn with force, that international law matters, that people and nations can make their own decisions about their future......our enduring strength is also reflected in our respect for an international system that protects the rights of both nations and people -- a United Nations and a Universal Declaration of Human Rights, international law and the means to enforce those laws.

In many ways, this is the conflict Putin has been seeking for decades now. It is absolutely critical that we all understand the stakes because it not only informs our support for Ukraine, but it will guide the strategies we use in response, as Makarychev goes on to explain.

Under these conditions, the gravest mistake on the side of the liberal Europe would be to compromise its core values and give any degree of legitimacy to Putin’s approach to international politics.

Playing an asymmetrical game with the Kremlin brings Europe more strategic benefits than accepting the validity of Putin’s militarized and largely antiquated international imagery.

To effectively counteract Russia, Europe does not need to alter its principled reliance on liberal norms. It just ought to adapt them to the new situation of the war. This should include imposing an unprecedented comprehensive package of sanctions and stepping up weapon deliveries to Ukraine.

That is exactly the path chosen by Biden, which is why Matt Duss, foreign policy advisor for Bernie Sanders, said that what the president is doing right now represents a "responsible progressive position on Ukraine."

It's also important for all of us to understand that Vladimir Putin went into this conflict with a weak hand. Here's something Josh Marshall wrote back in 2016:

With the DNC hacking operation...the on-going crisis in Ukraine, Russia’s role in the Middle East, various possible ways of trying to make mischief in the US election etc etc etc, we shouldn’t lose sight of an essential point: Russia is a weak and vulnerable state with geopolitical pretensions wildly out of sync with its national wealth and power.

President Obama made a similar point in 2014.

Russia is a regional power that is threatening some of its immediate neighbors not out of strength, but out of weakness. Ukraine has been a country in which Russia had enormous influence for decades, since the breakup of the Soviet Union. And we have considerable influence on our neighbors. We generally don’t need to invade them in order to have a strong, cooperative relationship with them. The fact that Russia felt compelled to go in militarily and lay bare these violations of international law indicates less influence, not more.

None of that is meant to diminish the pain and suffering Putin is inflicting on Ukrainians right now. But it does help us understand why his initial strategy failed completely. The Russian president seems to have been living in a bubble of misinformation, assuming a divided West, a submissive Ukraine, and a potency his own military never attained.

At 70 years of age, this is potentially Putin's last opportunity to impose his 19th Century world view on the globe. Delusional madmen with access to power can inflict terrible damage. But we're beginning to see the superior power of the new world order based on shared principles and rules, ie, partnership.